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@gatesvp@mstdn.ca

Post #2492974

2026-05-13 19:00 UTC

A great one from Quora. Question: How long will it take America to recover after Trump is gone? Answer (Franklin Veaux): About as long as it took Germany to recover after WWII: basically, two generations. But we will never, ever recover the power and influence we once had, just like Germany didn’t. That will never happen. That is gone and it will not come back. The next hundred years will be the age of China, not America. I don't think America has really come to terms with this yet, but that's where we are. I think the age of China will be closer to 50 or 60 years because of demographics. But it's already their era, people are still catching up about how far behind they are.

Replies (20)

  • @paul_ipv6@infosec.exchange 2026-05-13 19:20

    @gatesvp@mstdn.ca our current administration is chasing most of the world into the arms of the chinese. cutting aid programs. making solar power much more attractive and cheaper than gas/coal.

    Open ##2832686

  • @cstross@wandering.shop 2026-05-13 19:23

    @gatesvp@mstdn.ca Yep, two generations. It took about two generations from 1945 and VE day to the UK finally lowering the flag and withdrawing from Hong Kong (1997), conceding that the British Empire was over. As late as 1982 (Falklands conflict) the UK still had a collective delusion of being competent at global force projection. (The Falklands victory was *much* closer to being an abject defeat than anyone in the UK is happy to admit. And it was the last spasm of autonomous military competence.)

    Open ##2832687

  • @gatesvp@mstdn.ca Realistically, that check was already in the mail, but Trump certainly supercharged the process.

    Open ##2832704

  • @adamrice@c.im 2026-05-13 20:02

    @gatesvp@mstdn.ca Germany had external powers forcing and assisting it to recover. The USA will have no such external powers, and there’s no guarantee that after trump, we won’t have “like trump, only more so.”

    Open ##2832710

  • @ymasumac@mstdn.social 2026-05-13 20:15

    @gatesvp@mstdn.ca As an academic in international relations, no lies detected. Hard agree.

    Open ##2832716

  • @GGMcBG@mstdn.plus 2026-05-13 20:19

    @gatesvp@mstdn.ca I have one of the still-remaining worthless German 'Ghoul' 10,000 mark banknotes after they did their WWI bullshit. Whining about being sucked dry by reparations. We'll have Trump sucking an empty ketchup bottle like a vampire on our $45,470 banknote.

    Open ##2832717

  • @metaning@mastodon.social 2026-05-13 20:46

    @gatesvp@mstdn.ca The rest of the world piled in to finance and support Germany's, and Japan's reconstruction. No one, NO. ONE. will pay a cent, or give a fuck about USia's "recovery". "We will never trust you again."

    Open ##2832718

  • @jklowden@mastodon.social 2026-05-13 20:49

    @gatesvp@mstdn.ca, I’m sorry, but this answer doesn’t even rise to the level of silly. There is no comparison, nor basis for comparison. Germany in 1945 was utterly wrecked. Its economy away in tatters, its industrial base destroyed. And it suffered from brain drain as its Jewish intellectuals and scientists fled persecution. How does that compare to an inept maladministration in the US? China remains an authoritarian system. Do not assume that is a strength.

    Open ##2832721

  • @It_is_me@mastodon.social 2026-05-13 21:20

    @gatesvp@mstdn.ca maybe that’s not entirely a bad thing. To much power and money have led us here. We could stand to be taken down a notch or two. Get our priorities right. Just saying.

    Open ##2832726

  • @xs4me2@mastodon.social 2026-05-13 21:52

    @gatesvp@mstdn.ca Exactly this indeed…

    Open ##2832731

  • @evan@cosocial.ca 2026-05-13 22:07

    @gatesvp@mstdn.ca "But we will never, ever recover the power and influence we once had, just like Germany didn’t." Is that true about Germany? Today it doesn't have the genocidal domination over Europe that it had in the late 1930s and early 1940s. But I'd say Germany today is as least as powerful and influential as in the 1920s or even the 1900s. I guess it comes down to what you think Germany recovered *from*: becoming an evil authoritarian regime, or the defeat of that regime.

    Open ##2832732

  • @adavid@aus.social 2026-05-13 22:09

    @gatesvp@mstdn.ca Last year after the White House ambush of Zelenskyy, I said that the US had 6 months to change course or it will be ruined for generations. I have not changed my view. Every day the MAGA regime's actions bring the USA closer to collapse. Most of the rest of the world will not react decisively enough until they are dragged into the US's malaise. 2030s is going to be 'interesting'.

    Open ##2832736

  • @DeliaChristina@sfba.social 2026-05-13 22:42

    @gatesvp@mstdn.ca I also don't think Americans understand what it will take to ensure this government is put down (let's be clear about what we're talking about) and ensure all the levers they pulled to gut our standing, laws, and administrative rules are reversed. Resetting and then actually reforming the US will take a massive effort. UnDOGEing Federal agencies is more than just throwing out the DOGE Bros, for instance.

    Open ##2832738

  • @numodular@c.im 2026-05-13 23:10

    @gatesvp@mstdn.ca #BeltAndRoadInitiative #GlobalSouth #EmergingEconomies #DevelopingCountries

    Open ##2832739

  • @TurquoiseC@mastodon.social 2026-05-13 23:15

    @gatesvp@mstdn.ca As a Chinese, what I feel is that Chinese'era will not come because it' accelerating population aging which is even wrost than South Korea and a debt reduction cycle marked by the bursting of a massive real estate bubble. So-called Chinese mode is just a cheap price of human resources and low legal support on laborship. That's why we saw concepts of India era has arise because they are actually younger than Chinese.

    Open ##2832740

  • @gatesvp@mstdn.ca the problem with China is that they are crushing their inherent strengths with tremendous efficiency. They have such internal diversity and they're actively, energetically destroying it. Diversity breeds innovation. China generally struggles with innovation.

    Open ##2832744

  • @elasticsoul@mastodon.social 2026-05-13 23:56

    @gatesvp@mstdn.ca The US poured a lot of money into rebuilding Germany, which also changed its electoral system to prevent another Hitler. I can't see anyone helping the US rebuild and nor should we - unless the US changes their electoral system and holds Nuremberg trials. "How long will it take America to recover after Trump is gone? "Answer (Franklin Veaux): "About as long as it took Germany to recover after WWII: basically, two generations.'

    Open ##2832745

  • @EricLawton@kolektiva.social 2026-05-14 01:08

    @gatesvp@mstdn.ca The UK has still not come to terms with losing its empire and great power status. Brexit was one illustration of this.

    Open ##2832746

  • @CTHW@mstdn.ca 2026-05-14 01:33

    @gatesvp@mstdn.ca How long will it take for countries to trust a contract with the US after it has shown that all it takes is one administration to just ignore them?

    Open ##2832747

  • @gatesvp@mstdn.ca I've long thought we need some kind of #Fediverse alternate to Quora.

    Open ##2832748