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Sophie Schmieg

@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange
  • Open on infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google.

Opinions my own.

Content usually badly explained mathematics

4856 Followers
283 Following
50 Posts
Joined November 14, 2022
profession:
cryptography engineer
hobby:
Kerbal Space Program
hobby:
Lego
hobby:
Factory Sim Games

Posts

Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Aug 04, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
Technician: so usually this end is supposed to be cool and that end is supposed to be warm, but in your case it's the other way around Me: so we have heatpump? Technician *laughs*: no you have a broken AC
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Aug 03, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
Don't make Wittgenstein cry, please. https://mailarchive.ietf.org/arch/msg/tls/vPt6gIgWBHlvDcIN6lvHg8CPLJE/
mailarchive.ietf.org

[TLS] Re: Discussion about the Deployment Decision

Search IETF mail list archives

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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Aug 03, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
The three energy levels of the cat atom, before excitement.
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jul 31, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
If you told me ten years ago that one day I would get into online fights with economic Nobel price laureates, and that I would be the one looking sane in the exchange, I would have laughed out loud.
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jul 30, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
LEAN was used to prove the Collatz conjecture. The proof exploited several vulnerabilities in the proving engine, and is not actually valid, which is par for the course for the Collatz conjecture, known exploit of the human mind.
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jul 28, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
On the HAWK break: setting aside the LLM part of the narrative, this fits very well into my priors. I only had started looking at HAWK fairly recently and have not devoted much time to it, but when then I was not really convinced by the security argument. My main concern is that HAWK's public key is a global property, while any other module lattice based scheme only ever reveals local properties (Local/Global with respect to the number field order). Global properties contain much more usable information, so being able to reduce the problem to a smaller lattice is not too unexpected. I do not expect similar results to apply for MLWE or NTRU based schemes. Even though HAWK is a lattice algorithm, it's one that is much more deeply intertwined with the module structure, which gives it an Achilles heel. The fact that this was done with heavy LLM assistance on the other hand is quite surprising. It's unclear how much of this is marketing hype, and there is no surpassing human capabilities there yet (except maybe in time spent), so I don't see a revolution in cryptanalysis per se, but certainly interesting new tools for researchers.
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jul 28, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
Why do 3mg of US melatonin absolutely knock me out to the point of being tired in the morning, while 3mg of European melanin, with the same jetleg time and direction barely keep me asleep until midnight. Both products claim to only contain 3mg of melatonin and pill filler, but the European variant is in a capsule and the US variant is not.
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jul 26, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
I hate coming of airplane Wi-Fi to the news that there has been a terror attack on the pride parade in Berlin
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jul 23, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
How to interpret a base64 encoded ML-DSA signature: first kilobyte: the exhausting part Second to last bytes: AAAAAAAAAAAA the eternal scream after being done with the exhausting part The last few bytes: the death rattle
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jul 23, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
TLS session in half an hour. Can I have some pictures of cute kittens, to offset the cosmic balance?
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jul 22, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
My wife: "the car went 4 miles per kWh" Me: "don't you mean 1.7 mm/J?
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jul 20, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
Imagine falsely thinking something is an online poll, try to manipulate the outcome by getting your followers to "vote", still losing the "poll" by a decent margin, even though no organized counter campaign exists and overwhelmingly losing when the actual rules are applied as written, and calling foul play. That's essentially the non-technical version of the non-story of pure ML-KEM in TLS at IETF. (The technical story is that the stakes couldn't be lower with the details in my now 8 months old blog post) Now let's hope journalists manage to do some source work before writing articles on how the IETF has been undermined by intelligence agencies trying to backdoor everything
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jul 19, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
Going to hotel bar, asking for dinner Host: dinner?!? Not football?!? Me: yes dinner. Food, for eating, please. Ah Vienna, never change.
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jul 19, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
Ah, I see the pure ML-KEM LC has been resolved to the positive by the chairs while I was in the air. Brace for impact
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jul 19, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
Newspaper: trump threatens tariffs due to Canadian wildfire smoke My jetlagged brain: I'm pretty sure the Canadians aren't charging for the smoke to begin with
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jul 16, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
Imagine misquoting German phrases in public, to a German. Like what the hell is even happening here?!? https://mailarchive.ietf.org/arch/msg/tls/ZHXO2T39xNb8Fg-QDqK5sjF7kww/
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jul 13, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
Emma the Unflinching!
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jul 12, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
Christianity is only valid modulo two
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jul 08, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
Niche memes
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jul 08, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
I don't get why anybody is listening to Jacob Applebaum. My cat has about the same expertise in cryptography, and has never been credibly accused of sexual abuse. She's also a lot cuter.
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jul 05, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
I now get pestered by more djb minions on here being all like BuT WhAt If YoUr BaNk UsEd PuRe ML-KEM?!!)?!? Well, if my bank servers support this cipher exactly nothing happens. My client will still not offer it, so it will not be negotiated. And if it were to be negotiated then… also nothing would happen and my data would stay secure.
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jul 02, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
Things will get real fun when all these new TLS WG members realize that it is not, in fact, a vote. https://datatracker.ietf.org/doc/html/rfc7282#page-16
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jul 01, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
Lol. LMFAO, even. Men literally count the number of times a woman uses the word "literally" in order to avoid going to ther^H^H^H looking at the content of a blog post. https://mailarchive.ietf.org/arch/msg/tls/0KXcI7-afJC1hlDFs-Hy87BkRY8/
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jul 01, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
I feel like "For all Mankind" is more and more just the prequel for the Expanse
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jun 30, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
*Opens the TLS WG inbox after three weeks OOO* *Closes the TLS WG inbox*
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jun 30, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
The fact that three Supreme Court Justices were willing to throw it jus solis shows you how "conservative" they are.
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jun 28, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
Me: I don't think we have lounge access. I mean you can ask, but they're going to be incredibly rude about it so I'm not going to @saraislet@infosec.exchange *asks* @saraislet@infosec.exchange is politely told no Me: 🤔 Me: … Me: oh! We're in Canada! That was rude for Canada! I was confused there for a bit.
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jun 27, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
Me: what's up with all these goose memes? … … Me: Goose was not valued!
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jun 26, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
The Deutsches Museum Thermometer has an out of bounds exception
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sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jun 18, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
I had this one sitting in my draft queue before I went on vacation, and forgot to hit publish. I hope nobody starved. So please enjoy my rant on hybrid signatures. https://keymaterial.net/2026/06/18/on-hybrid-signatures/
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sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Jun 14, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
Boosted by hypebot @hypebot@goingdark.social
@saraislet@infosec.exchange : Look at that girl's tattoo Me: sorry, missed it @saraislet@infosec.exchange : Look at those boots! Me: sorry, missed it @saraislet@infosec.exchange : Look at… Me: we're at a train station. Just assume that I'm distracted by trains.
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sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · May 28, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
Replying to @kouett@soc.kouett.net.eu.org
@kouett@soc.kouett.net.eu.org @lina@vt.social honestly, it's too bad for that. I can whip you up a way of generating "keys" that would be impossible to cryptanalyse, just the fact that you used my server to generate them is enough. Why let your adversaries exploit the same weaknesses you are exploiting when you don't have to? This smells of incompetence, not intent.
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Open post
sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · May 14, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
Replying to @prism@infosec.exchange
@prism@infosec.exchange @neurovagrant@masto.deoan.org the algorithm was @catsalad@infosec.exchange all along!
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sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · May 14, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange

In order to go viral on Mastodon, your post should include at least one cat and some criticism of AI. So here is Binah disliking large language models.

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sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · May 02, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
Boosted by hypebot @hypebot@goingdark.social
I think I might need to check some luggage, my bag doesn't want to close.
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sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Apr 29, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange

Help me settle this important issue with my wife, @saraislet@infosec.exchange
How many presidents had sex at least once in the Oval Office after becoming president?

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sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Apr 20, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
Replying to @jerry@infosec.exchange
@jerry let's see, I have a Z[X]/(X²⁵⁶+1, 3329) here, some endomorphisms rings of supersingular elliptic curves, and my wedding ring. But I did opt for the Nest doorbell instead of the ring*, I hope that doesn't bite me now! *I had to choose one or the other when buying the house "just a button that makes a ringing sound" was not an option
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sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Apr 19, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange

My hot take on the vulnpocalypse:

We don't have more vulnerabilities than we had before. The vulnerabilities were always there, we just didn't know they existed. But importantly, for moderately sophisticated attackers, who only have to find a relatively low number of vulns to begin with, not much has changed. Yeah it's a little bit cheaper, but finding vulns wasn't all that difficult, depending on the target. For defenders otoh, making the finding of vulns cheaper is theoretically a good thing, but we already had not enough capacity to fix the vulns found by fuzz testing and similar methods before, so this is just adding on the pile of stuff we know is broken, but can't keep up with fixing it. The net effect seems to be that we made triage more expensive. Yay.

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sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Apr 17, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange

I have to say, publishing results as zero knowledge proof does have one benefit: it tricks security researchers into learning about quantum circuits. This is some amazing work!

https://blog.trailofbits.com/2026/04/17/we-beat-googles-zero-knowledge-proof-of-quantum-cryptanalysis/

We beat Google’s zero-knowledge proof of quantum cryptanalysis
The Trail of Bits Blog

We beat Google’s zero-knowledge proof of quantum cryptanalysis

Trail of Bits discovered and exploited memory safety and logic vulnerabilities in Google’s Rust zero-knowledge proof code to forge a proof claiming better quantum circuit performance metrics than Goog

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sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Apr 16, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange

I'm being quoted. Apocalypse! It's the end of the world (as we know it)! Oh noes!

https://gizmodo.com/how-should-we-prepare-for-the-looming-quantum-encryption-apocalypse-2000744543

How Should We Prepare for the Looming Quantum Encryption Apocalypse?
Gizmodo

How Should We Prepare for the Looming Quantum Encryption Apocalypse?

The dreaded Q-day could arrive sooner than expected, and when it does, experts say we need to be ready.

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sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Apr 16, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
Replying to @EthicalProfessor@mstdn.social
@EthicalProfessor I want him to excommunicate Vance! We need more 11th century drama in our politics!
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sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Apr 16, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
Replying to @soatok@furry.engineer
@soatok@furry.engineer I hope they accounted for ML-DSA's signature size when planning to add all these JWTs.
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sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Apr 15, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
I'm expecting Vance's excommunication and the formation of the MAGA antipope any day now.
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sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Apr 14, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
Replying to @baldur@toot.cafe
@baldur there also is an amount of survivorship bias both in the positive and in the negative direction. Examples where things work spookily well are shared widely, as are examples of embarrassing misses. Add confirmation bias into the mix and you get the hype cycle almost entirely organically.
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sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Apr 11, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
Replying to @espadrine@mastodon.social
@espadrine @filippo @matthew_d_green no, I'm taking this bet at 2³² odds, since that is the usual margin for cryptographic systems. So I pay a dollar if it doesn't exist, but get 2³² if it does.
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sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Apr 07, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
Replying to @neverpanic@chaos.social
@neverpanic I'm personally now targeting 2009.
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sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Apr 07, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange

I post links about the quantum thing. That is my life now, I guess.

Anyways, here is Cloudflare following suit and setting 2029 as target date, and Scott slowing losing his mind over people being dumb on the internet.

https://blog.cloudflare.com/post-quantum-roadmap/

https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=9668

Cloudflare targets 2029 for full post-quantum security
The Cloudflare Blog

Cloudflare targets 2029 for full post-quantum security

Recent advances in quantum hardware and software have accelerated the timeline on which quantum attack might happen. Cloudflare is responding by moving our target for full post-quantum security to 202

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sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Apr 06, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange

And the posts, they keep on coming.
I hundred percent agree with @filippo@abyssdomain.expert here, the question is not whether we're certain that a quantum computer exists by 2029, it's whether we're certain that one doesn't exist. And things have progressed far enough that non-physicists, or even physicists working in different subfields, can no longer reliably tell what's going on.

https://words.filippo.io/crqc-timeline/

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sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Apr 02, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange
Replying to @leberschnitzel@existiert.ch
@leberschnitzel that is the billion dollar question. There is a non negligible chance of it being as early as 2029, but it might very well be several years later, we just can't ignore it being possible in 2029.
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sophieschmieg
Sophie Schmieg @sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange · Apr 02, 2026
Sophie Schmieg
@sophieschmieg@infosec.exchange

Leading cryptography (ISE Crypto) at Google. Opinions my own. Content usually badly explained mathematics

infosec.exchange

A very nice explainer why "if you're so worried about quantum computers, why haven't they factored 21 yet?" isn't a very convincing argument. Look at the labels of the graph, and how extremely close the various lines are for factoring 21 and 2048 bit numbers. Polynomial scaling remains polynomial, unfortunately, and by the time you can factor 21 you're almost ready to break RSA.

https://bas.westerbaan.name/notes/2026/04/02/factoring.html

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