Chris Nelder 🤘
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster.
tfr
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Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Note: "Global energy-related CO2 emissions reached a new record high, but growth nearly ground to a halt (+0.5%)"
Also we're launching a podcast episode about the latest Global Electricity Review report from Ember on Wednesday that confirms/expands on this data.
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
China and India (the world's two most populous countries) are not following the FF pathways expected under SSP2-4.5, let alone higher emissions scenarios. Decarbonization is already running *ahead* of most scenarios including SSP2-4.5, esp. in power sector and road transport.
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
I am quite familiar with all of the cited sources.
As that article notes, "Estimates of future emissions under current policies tend to most closely match or fall slightly BELOW those of the middle-of-the-road SSP2–4.5 scenario"
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Here's a good source (and follow @hausfath and on Bluesky https://bsky.app/profile/hausfath.bsky.social) https://dashboard.theclimatebrink.com/#models
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
2) Yes, but again, that's all chatter and narrative, not data!
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
The warming so far (~1.45°C) is only *very slightly* higher than the expected warming in 2025 in the SSP2-4.5 scenario (~1.2–1.4°C). Correcting for a strong El Niño and reduced aerosols, we're basically in range.
So I would say your assertion is incorrect.
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
- the publishing platform (alternatives include Ghost and Beehiv)
- the recommendation algo (can be done other ways, including social media)
- the money collector (Patreon yes, but also Stripe etc)
Various combinations add up to 'earning a living' for numerous creators who are NOT using Substack, right now. Just because Substack makes it easy doesn't make it the only game in town.
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
It can't be said often enough, so I'll say it again:
Solar and batteries can power the world! It's cheaper than gas (esp. at today's prices) and a lot more reliable.
By 2030, solar and batteries could supply 90% of electricity to 80% of the world's population for < €80/MWh (including backup).
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
https://globalnews.ca/news/4924534/little-ice-age-death-55-million-indigenous-people-colonization-study/
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/26/climate/solar-energy-politics-campaigns.html?unlocked_article_code=1.WVA.LbZ9.hw3RdCfcRTO7&smid=url-share
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
I have only been watching oil markets closely for like 25 years, so I could be wrong, but I very much doubt there has ever been a gap this big between reality and the markets. Brent at $101 right now is ABSURD. It could easily double from here. Listen in and find out why!
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Major media coverage of the enormous damage that's been done to the Gulf oil & gas infrastructure is still way behind the reality, ever distracted by Trump's efforts to jawbone the price of oil down.
But you can be informed and ready for the pain to come. Listen in to this FREE episode!
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Want to understand how much damage has been done to the global oil & gas system and how it will affect you? Then check out our deep dive in this FREE episode!
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
TotalEnergies accepts $1B offshore wind buyout, pivots to oil and gas in US 😠 https://www.utilitydive.com/news/trump-administration-plans-buyout-offshore-wind-leases/814944/
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
Creator and Host of @TransitionShow and energy futurist/analyst/writer/speaker. Peripatetic podcaster. tfr
- High adoption rates in developing countries
- EVs pencil out unsubsidized
- Oil & gas are ~1/3 of all imports to In India and Pakistan
- Switching half of India’s car fleet to EVs could eliminate its current account deficit
- Rich countries are sabotaging their own energy transitions
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-08-10/the-whole-world-is-switching-to-evs-faster-than-you?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc1NDk0MjAwNiwiZXhwIjoxNzU1NTQ2ODA2LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUMFNLU1VHUEZIUjgwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJGM0VENDU5NTZFRjA0QjY5QTI0NTVBNTYxRDkyNkY5NiJ9.u3VslD0QnfVpiYvheKSB2LEWEUPgaviqZRlbBJt3rEM 🎁 🔗