Post #2456566

Seeing reports that up to 1/4 of US farmers have NOT PLANTED this year, as their crops depend on unavailable fertilizer. Now the Washington Post reports rice farmers in Asia are not planting either, as the reduced yields without fertilizer would lower their gross income below the cost of harvesting this year. This means the global harvest of all crops except grass fed animal products this year will be greatly reduced, and global food shortages are likely. To replace chemical fertilizers with the seemingly endless supply of manure from factory farms would require some different equipment, which in turn would have to be manufactured. None of that can be done with fertilizer suddenly disappears weeks before planting time. The lead time for any change in agriculture should be considered to be at least one full growing season. Consider how the Spring 2020 toilet paper crisis occurred, it was a substitution issue. When workplaces closed and so many stayed home, the demand for office/commerical toilet paper plunged and the demand for home toilet paper (a different product) soared. There was no way to simply shift production in realtime given how the plants were set iup. Nobody thought to put the larger rolls of office TP on grocery store shelves, so home toilet paper supplies were quickly exhausted. Runs on toilet paper followed, and soon there was none to be found anywhere.