Whenever you are past the edge, out in the wind, look for me. NOTICE: All posts by this account are copyright to the author (Jack William Bell) and may be shared and remixed by human beings. Any use in Large Language Models or other AI training is specifically disallowed and considered an egregious violation of copyright. IMPORTANT! Do not boost or mention this account if you are using a bridge to a commercial service, like Bluesky or Threads.
#bubblewatch update:
This is one of the signals I've been watching for!
A Prominent AI Investor Is Now Crumbling, in What Could Be a Sign of Things to Come. https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/situational-awareness-ai-investor-crumbling
Situational Awareness, a much-hyped AI hedge-fund … basically imploded over this month amid a mass tech sell-off … it’s now down 67 percent … forcing Aschenbrenner to desperately seek clients to buy its shares on the cheap to cover its losses.
See also:
Whenever you are past the edge, out in the wind, look for me. NOTICE: All posts by this account are copyright to the author (Jack William Bell) and may be shared and remixed by human beings. Any use in Large Language Models or other AI training is specifically disallowed and considered an egregious violation of copyright. IMPORTANT! Do not boost or mention this account if you are using a bridge to a commercial service, like Bluesky or Threads.
#bubblewatch update:
Is the bubble already popping in Asia? Or is this just a preview?
South Korean Authorities Scrambling to Save Stock Market From #AI #Bubble. https://futurism.com/future-society/south-korea-stock-panic-kopsi-kosdaq-circuit-breaker
Across July 28 and 29, Seoul Economic Daily reports widespread panic triggered not just one but two “circuit breakers” on the Korea Exchange, a sort of automated kill switch that halts regular trading for 30 minutes so panic-stricken traders can gather their thoughts.
Whenever you are past the edge, out in the wind, look for me. NOTICE: All posts by this account are copyright to the author (Jack William Bell) and may be shared and remixed by human beings. Any use in Large Language Models or other AI training is specifically disallowed and considered an egregious violation of copyright. IMPORTANT! Do not boost or mention this account if you are using a bridge to a commercial service, like Bluesky or Threads.
#bubblewatch update:
Analysis of current outstanding investment MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) debt showing huge losses (in the hundreds of billions) from 2022 to present.
US might be sitting on a TIME BOMB!! https://albygetho.substack.com/p/us-might-be-sitting-on-a-time-bomb
The greatest financial risk from the current #AI investment cycle is unlikely to come from a single company defaulting. Instead, it may emerge through a gradual deterioration in the credit chain that has developed around AI infrastructure.
Whenever you are past the edge, out in the wind, look for me. NOTICE: All posts by this account are copyright to the author (Jack William Bell) and may be shared and remixed by human beings. Any use in Large Language Models or other AI training is specifically disallowed and considered an egregious violation of copyright. IMPORTANT! Do not boost or mention this account if you are using a bridge to a commercial service, like Bluesky or Threads.
🚨 🚨 #bubblewatch Red Alert! 🚨 🚨
Investors Laying Groundwork to Profit Massively When #Economy Collapses. https://futurism.com/future-society/investors-shorting-economy
Another glowing red indicator just lit up on the control panel steering the US economy: short sellers have placed a nearly unprecedented magnitude of bets against the domestic stock market.
… the fact that a growing number of investors aren’t just exiting positions, but are actively betting against the US stock market is a massive tell.
Whenever you are past the edge, out in the wind, look for me. NOTICE: All posts by this account are copyright to the author (Jack William Bell) and may be shared and remixed by human beings. Any use in Large Language Models or other AI training is specifically disallowed and considered an egregious violation of copyright. IMPORTANT! Do not boost or mention this account if you are using a bridge to a commercial service, like Bluesky or Threads.
#bubblewatch update:
As they near their IPOs, #AI companies must choose between increasing prices to shore up their balance sheets or losing customers as prices approach their actual costs.
It's a lose/lose situation.
OpenAI Execs Are Panicking. https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/openai-execs-panicking-price-anthropic
Put simply, the horrible economics of AI are finally starting to rear their ugly head. Astronomical capital expenditures by AI companies are starting to trickle down to users — and they’re not liking what they’re seeing.
Whenever you are past the edge, out in the wind, look for me. NOTICE: All posts by this account are copyright to the author (Jack William Bell) and may be shared and remixed by human beings. Any use in Large Language Models or other AI training is specifically disallowed and considered an egregious violation of copyright. IMPORTANT! Do not boost or mention this account if you are using a bridge to a commercial service, like Bluesky or Threads.
#bubblewatch update:
Ed Zitron is, IMHO, our point man in shouting, "The #AI #bubble has no clothes!" His latest continues his high standard of debunking, this time going after the 'Mythos' 'Fable' being pushed by OpenAI.
AI's Brokenomics. https://www.wheresyoured.at/brokenomics/
The problem with this kind of hype is that you can only use it for so long before somebody believes you.
… Anthropic and OpenAI have much bigger problems than regulation … Their business models don’t fucking work.
You go Ed!
Whenever you are past the edge, out in the wind, look for me. NOTICE: All posts by this account are copyright to the author (Jack William Bell) and may be shared and remixed by human beings. Any use in Large Language Models or other AI training is specifically disallowed and considered an egregious violation of copyright. IMPORTANT! Do not boost or mention this account if you are using a bridge to a commercial service, like Bluesky or Threads.
#bubblewatch update:
It's good seeing this kind of thing in #newsmedia consumed by average people. It's bad seeing this kind of thing glossing over the details to the extent it becomes unconvincing in order to be consumed by average people.
The #AI #bubble could be worse than the dot-com bust. https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5925202-tech-bubble-ai-driven-growth/
But with both the broader economy and the ongoing bull market relying heavily on a concentrated AI-driven boom, the fallout from a burst bubble could be severe.
Whenever you are past the edge, out in the wind, look for me. NOTICE: All posts by this account are copyright to the author (Jack William Bell) and may be shared and remixed by human beings. Any use in Large Language Models or other AI training is specifically disallowed and considered an egregious violation of copyright. IMPORTANT! Do not boost or mention this account if you are using a bridge to a commercial service, like Bluesky or Threads.
#bubblewatch update:
Consensus Grows That China Is Crushing the United States at AI. https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/consensus-china-crushing-usa-ai-survey
Whether this shift in world opinion reflects growing revulsion at the American model or genuine admiration for China’s approach is hard to untangle. What’s clear is that if the US tech industry intends to keep doubling down on its extractive, worker-hostile strategy, it faces a serious legitimacy crisis far beyond what any single company can hope to solve.
Whenever you are past the edge, out in the wind, look for me. NOTICE: All posts by this account are copyright to the author (Jack William Bell) and may be shared and remixed by human beings. Any use in Large Language Models or other AI training is specifically disallowed and considered an egregious violation of copyright. IMPORTANT! Do not boost or mention this account if you are using a bridge to a commercial service, like Bluesky or Threads.
#bubblewatch update:
I haven't done a market-based bubblewatch in a while, but today we are seeing a sharp drop in tech stock valuations over hyperscaler fundamentals instead of entirely unrelated Iran war news.
Wall St tumbles on tech selloff as concerns about hawkish Fed, #AI spending mount. https://www.reuters.com/business/nasdaq-futures-fall-2-tech-worries-fed-hike-bets-2026-06-23/
"The AI trade became one of the most crowded trades in global markets. When everybody owns the same stocks, the exit door becomes very small very quickly."
Whenever you are past the edge, out in the wind, look for me. NOTICE: All posts by this account are copyright to the author (Jack William Bell) and may be shared and remixed by human beings. Any use in Large Language Models or other AI training is specifically disallowed and considered an egregious violation of copyright. IMPORTANT! Do not boost or mention this account if you are using a bridge to a commercial service, like Bluesky or Threads.
#bubblewatch update:
Paul Krugman on the stock market carnage we've seen over the last few days.
The Chips Are Down. https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-chips-are-down
There’s been a fall in tech stocks very much concentrated in semiconductors … What’s going on there? … it does seem that part of what’s happening, probably a large part of what’s happening, is that the tone, the rhetoric surrounding use of #AI, and hence the demand for compute, has really shifted quite a lot just very recently.
Whenever you are past the edge, out in the wind, look for me. NOTICE: All posts by this account are copyright to the author (Jack William Bell) and may be shared and remixed by human beings. Any use in Large Language Models or other AI training is specifically disallowed and considered an egregious violation of copyright. IMPORTANT! Do not boost or mention this account if you are using a bridge to a commercial service, like Bluesky or Threads.
#bubblewatch update:
While tech stocks melt down, because investors finally started doing the math and realized it doesn't add up, Ed Zitron is still ahead of everyone else in understanding the problem. In this case he's pointing out #AI is a Cargo Cult because they've ran out of ideas and can only mimic the forms of a viable business.
Cargo Culture. https://www.wheresyoured.at/cargo-culture/
The AI industry is fundamentally judged based on its symbolic similarities to bygone eras.
Whenever you are past the edge, out in the wind, look for me. NOTICE: All posts by this account are copyright to the author (Jack William Bell) and may be shared and remixed by human beings. Any use in Large Language Models or other AI training is specifically disallowed and considered an egregious violation of copyright. IMPORTANT! Do not boost or mention this account if you are using a bridge to a commercial service, like Bluesky or Threads.
#bubblewatch update:
Russ Mould is saying the #AI #bubble has expanded too far and will badly hurt the wider #economy when it pops. He bases this on an abnormal Shiller CAPE ratio indicating S&P 500 stocks are insanely overvalued.
On Black Tuesday, the day that kicked off the worst financial catastrophe in modern history, the ratio was 32.5 — 8.5 points lower than it stands today.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclically_adjusted_price-to-earnings_ratio
Paywalled link:
Summary:
https://futurism.com/future-society/impending-market-collapse-ai-bubble-stocks-overvalued
Whenever you are past the edge, out in the wind, look for me. NOTICE: All posts by this account are copyright to the author (Jack William Bell) and may be shared and remixed by human beings. Any use in Large Language Models or other AI training is specifically disallowed and considered an egregious violation of copyright. IMPORTANT! Do not boost or mention this account if you are using a bridge to a commercial service, like Bluesky or Threads.
#bubblewatch update:
I boosted this separately, but I really want to encourage you to read this clear eyed discussion of the costs, demand, and pricing models for #AI
Ways to think about token pricing. AI is in a supply crunch today, but what happens when we come out of it? How and where will supply, demand, price, capacity and capex get back into equilibrium? Today, model labs can name their price, but why won’t they end up as low-margin commodity infrastructure? https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2026/7/9/ways-to-think-about-token-pricing
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