Post #3942308
2026-06-10 21:47 UTC
Every period of exponential growth turns out to be an S-curve. You can't sell 2x as many phones each year on a planet of 8 billion people forever, eventually everyone already has one.
Moore's Law's S-curve bent down in 2010, and we've had maybe 3 of the expected 10 doublings since then, putting us ~100x behind the old trend line.
That's why they announce data centers twice the size of downtown Minneapolis using water cooled chips powered by a dryer outlet each: Moore's Zombie.
Replies (3)
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@landley@mstdn.jp 2026-06-10 21:57
The LLM bubble is the Weekend at Bernies version of the dotcom boom, which happened on DIALUP internet. The first linksys router came out the year of the crash (before which wifi and always-on broadband connections weren't readily available). The first modern smartphones came out 6 years later. The dotcom crash happened with a decade of technological growth left. But there's no exponential LLM growth, only linear returns for linear cost increases. Silicon Valley beating a dead business model.
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@kuteboicoder@subs4social.xyz 2026-06-10 22:02
@landley@mstdn.jp no lies detected
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@kirtai@tech.lgbt 2026-06-11 12:21
@landley@mstdn.jp I wonder if the S-curve is following logistic growth.