Post #3942307

2026-06-10 21:57 UTC

The LLM bubble is the Weekend at Bernies version of the dotcom boom, which happened on DIALUP internet. The first linksys router came out the year of the crash (before which wifi and always-on broadband connections weren't readily available). The first modern smartphones came out 6 years later. The dotcom crash happened with a decade of technological growth left. But there's no exponential LLM growth, only linear returns for linear cost increases. Silicon Valley beating a dead business model.

Replies (4)

@landley@mstdn.jp 2026-06-11 18:41

The death of Moore's Law is also why the AI bubble buildout causes shortages: https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/the-rising-tide-of-semiconductor Moore's Law didn't just make things cheaper, it produced more of them. Moore's Law was "twice as much for the same price every 18 months" meaning the same amount was half the cost. VC bros trying to brute force their way to the old growth curve physically cannot buy enough RAM and storage because the amount the old laws led them to expect does not exist. Exponential growth stopped, past tense.

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@kuteboicoder@subs4social.xyz 2026-06-10 22:12

@landley@mstdn.jp

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@petrillic@hachyderm.io 2026-06-11 19:02

@landley@mstdn.jp @wordshaper@weatherishappening.network they’re chasing the same cocaine fueled high.

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@Seruko@mstdn.social 2026-06-11 19:49

@landley@mstdn.jp strong disagree, LLM costs increase exponentially for marginal gains.

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