Post #3942306

2026-06-11 18:41 UTC

The death of Moore's Law is also why the AI bubble buildout causes shortages: https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/the-rising-tide-of-semiconductor Moore's Law didn't just make things cheaper, it produced more of them. Moore's Law was "twice as much for the same price every 18 months" meaning the same amount was half the cost. VC bros trying to brute force their way to the old growth curve physically cannot buy enough RAM and storage because the amount the old laws led them to expect does not exist. Exponential growth stopped, past tense.

Replies (2)

@landley@mstdn.jp 2026-06-13 18:44

Increasing clock speed stopped helping Moore's Law move forward around 2003, "CPU performance growth as we have known it hit a wall" http://www.gotw.ca/publications/concurrency-ddj.htm Then around 2013 shrinking feature size stopped helping Moore's Law move forward. Here the coinventor of the FinFET (a transistor built on its side so it looks smaller from above) said "Nobody knows anymore what 16 nm means or what 14 nm means". https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-status-of-moores-law-its-complicated Clock speed and resolution both succumbed to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law

Open ##3942305
@cmsdengl@mas.to 2026-06-11 18:45

@landley@mstdn.jp We Computer Scientists were saying Moore's Law would plateau around 2023. as fabrication hit quantum interference limits

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