Post #2552965
2026-05-11 20:33 UTC
When the forecast says 40% chance of rain, does it mean 100% chance of getting 40% wet or 40% chance of getting 100% wet?
Replies (5)
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@Luke@typo.social 2026-05-11 21:36
@sol@typo.social this 82% perfectly illustrates statistics and probabilities nearly precisely without noticeable flaws or errors. In my estimation.
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@MauriceMeilleur@typo.social 2026-05-12 02:22
@sol@typo.social And stats apply to populations, not people. So: does that mean I personally have a 40% chance of getting wet? Or that 40% of us will get wet?
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@kai@typo.social 2026-05-12 06:58
@sol@typo.social I guess it’s “one of the most least understood elements of the weather forecast.” [sic!] https://www.weather.gov/media/pah/WeatherEducation/pop.pdf
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@MamaLake@beige.party 2026-05-12 07:27
@sol@typo.social yes
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@jakmarcin@mstdn.science 2026-05-12 08:31
@sol@typo.social Nice one! :) Ps Could be also anything in between, like 50% of getting 80% wet.