Post #1621281
2026-04-23 13:15 UTC
Does it make sense now why I’ve been saying all of the idle compute and silicon we have in consumer electronics is an anachronism? Why we will be compute-constrained for the rest of our lives? Why this is not an asset bubble comparable to previous ones? Why we are on the path to capital replacing labor? Companies are already falling over themselves to spend senior-engineer-level salaries per engineer on AI that isn’t close to the top of the S-curve (if there even is one).
Replies (2)
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@kyle@mister.computer 2026-04-23 13:27
I am bearish on the threat of local models to frontier labs. It may placate hobbyists–for as long as consumer compute exists–but the effects are different in the market. If you can trade money for guaranteed work products, and the utility of those work products compound, you will always be incentivized to throw as much money to the best and fastest compounder. Imagine if local models matched Opus 4.7 today but Anthropic was selling access to Mythos. They would still be saturated with demand.
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@mattiem@mastodon.social 2026-04-23 13:41
@kyle@mister.computer only sorta tbh