Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 157 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No changes to extent of Frost Advisory or Freeze Warning this morning.
Rainfall amounts for the middle of the week system continue to trend slightly higher.
KEY MESSAGES
- Widespread frost across the NC mountains and foothills this morning, as well as freezing temperatures in Avery County and at very high elevations of other mountain counties. 2. Temperatures trend warmer through Tuesday as skies remain mostly clear. However, cannot rule out very patchy frost in mountain valleys tonight into Monday morning. 3. Another cold front will bring rain to the area during the middle part of the upcoming week. The threat for severe weather with this system, while appearing low at this time, has started to trend upward in the new guidance.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Widespread frost across the NC mountains and foothills this morning, as well as freezing temperatures in Avery County and at very high elevations of other mountain counties.
Colder air is filtering into the region early this morning on light northwest winds aloft, associated with continental high pressure centered in the mid-Mississippi Valley. Skies are clear across the CWA except for some upslope clouds along the NC/TN border, which are on a diminishing trend and should not be a major inhibitor of radiational cooling. The gradient has already relaxed enough that decoupling has occurred in many rural areas. Confidence is high for frost occurrence within the existing Frost Advisory. Based on updated hourly temps and seeing a few sites have cooled more quickly than forecast, can`t rule out some very patchy frost in the NC I-40 corridor outside the Advisory, but think it is too isolated to warrant an expansion, particularly at this late hour. Dewpoints do not look likely to fall much more from current readings near freezing in those areas, so cooling probably will stop before a widespread freeze occurs in the mountains, though a freeze has already occurred on a few ridgetop obs and a few valley locations could experience a light freeze. Freeze Warning remains for Avery County where the zone average is likely to bottom out below 32. Key message 2: Temperatures trend warmer through Tuesday as skies remain mostly clear. However, cannot rule out very patchy frost in mountain valleys tonight into Monday morning… GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES GA…Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for GAZ010. NC…Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ048>053-058- 059-062>065-501>506. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ033. SC…None.
