#exportcontrols

The Moose has Left the Woods! OR when your business model is crumbling before your eyes - go BEG the government to "protect" your product! AI Executives are shitting their pants given the release of Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3. I seem to recall a similar situation re DeepSeek-1 in Jan. 2025. All the freaking out about "winning and losing" and whining about "distillation" re China are the WRONG things to focus on. It is a fallacy to think US Frontier Labs would be successful in locking down AI models and charging high prices for access in perpetuity. It is inevitable that open weight models would catch up, and put SERIOUS pressure on pricing. Welcome to software - It just happens that China is leading the charge on this one. The magic is NOT about the model. The magic is creating the guardrails and infrastructure (ecosystem) around the model, and supporting practical use cases the model excels at, and making them so good to use that no user wants to switch to something "almost as good", even if it’s a touch cheaper. Net-net, governments cannot stop software at the border. Import/Export controls will NOT be effective at stopping Chinese firms from distilling US models, even if the USA is successful at starving China of inference, which also will NOT happen. https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/ai-execs-quaking-boots-chinese-models #AI #LLMs #Kimi-K3 #Kimi #FrontierModels #USA #China #ImportControls #ExportControls #Software #Distillation #Open-Weight-Models #AIPloicy #Protectionism #AIRegulation #DeepSeek #Software #OpenSource #Moonshot

China AI export controls could restrict model weights, training data, and chip designs as Beijing starts guarding frontier AI as a national asset. #ChinaAI #ExportControls #AIRegulation #Semiconductors #OpenSourceAI https://securityexpress.info/china-ai-export-controls/?utm_source=mastodon&utm_medium=jetpack_social

Reuters is wrong about a Chinese export control of general purpose AI (GP AI). They are right about the concern, that the EU relies too much on technology imports considering future "frontier AI" models (domain-specific AI included).

https://ipc.court.gov.cn/zh-cn/news/view-5766.html

A proposed tiered export-control list for open-source AI: filing-only for generic tech, substantive export control for strategic/frontier tech, no open-sourcing for national-security-critical tech

数字法治｜【圆桌论坛】人工智能时代开源治理的法律回应（下）‖ 杜微科、张平、孙海龙、陈兵、王鑫、辜凌云 - 最高人民法院知识产权法庭

Model weights as a de facto data-export vector under the Data Security Law (training data can be reversed out of weights), with proposals for "safe harbor" rules for anonymized weights

数字法治｜【圆桌论坛】人工智能时代开源治理的法律回应（下）‖ 杜微科、张平、孙海龙、陈兵、王鑫、辜凌云 - 最高人民法院知识产权法庭

Download / Uploads to GitHub / Huggingface may be a Technology Import / Export. But per-download licenses are impractical.

Frontier AI capacity export will likely be subject to the same restriction the USA have established via the Anthropic Mythos case recently (Wassenaar accords related, but there are different interpretations).

It is clear, that capable models (medical, military, image recognition, information security and forensics, finance macro and policy, ...) will be subject to legal policies.

Takeaways:

1. It should also be clear to the EU zone, that the economic impact of not having a competitive frontier / domain-specific AI will have massive consequences for local businesses. Medical, military, image recognition, information security and forensics, finance etc.). Massive loss of capability, EU becomes en empty hull and a set of developing countries, full of disappointed right-wing cavemen looking for "jobs".

That being said, in the EU it's impossible to concentrate enough capital. The venture sector is not established enough, and the bureaucratic processes are overprivileged. In the EU not many founders want to take both the financial and regulatory risks, because the expected profit margin isn't as high as in the US.

I see that major parts of the EU economy will end up like German legacy car makers.

#china #ai #eu #innovation #exportcontrols

🟢 Export Controls | 5/10 🇺🇸 US imposes export controls on Anthropic AI models The U.S. government barred foreign nationals from accessing Fable 3 and Mythos 5, including foreign national employees. Claude is not affected by these controls. #OSINT #NewsGroup #AI #ExportControls #Technology #Anthropic