This is way too brief and lacks any actual evidence for its argument It doesn’t touch on the main argument of AI bubble forecasters: that AI costs a massive amount of money to develop and run but does not make nearly enough money to recoup that investment. And people don’t seem to be interested enough in AI to actually pay for it, especially given that the actual price will be very high

I pay for it. One of the services I pay is about $25/mo and they release about one update a year or so. It’s not cutting edge, just specialized. And they are making a profit doing a bit of tech investment and running the service, apparently. But also they are just tuning and packaging a publicly available model, not creating their own. What can’t be sustained is this sprint to AGI or to always stay at the head of the pack. It’s too much investment for tiny gains that ultimately don’t move the needle a lot. I guess if the companies all destroy one another until only one remains, or someone really does attain AGI, they will realize gains. I’m not sure I see that working out, though.

But also they are just tuning and packaging a publicly available model, not creating their own. So they can be profitable because the cost of creating that model isn’t factored in, and if people stop throwing money at LLMs and stop releasing models for free, there goes their business model. So this is not really sustainable either.