2026-05-18 15:10 UTC
The right counterfactual isn't RCP8.5. It's the full range of baseline scenarios, which averaged ~3.5C of warming by 2100. Today's medium scenario lands closer to 2.8C.
That's ~0.7C of avoided warming from policy + technology. Not the full 1.7C difference from RCP8.5, but still huge.
Replies (1)
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@hausfath@fediscience.org 2026-05-18 15:10
This tracks with other independent estimates. Climate Action Tracker's "policies & action" projection has fallen from 3.6C in 2015 to 2.6C in 2026, around ~1C of progress. The IEA saw similar pre-Paris baselines around 3.5C.