2026-05-18 15:10 UTC
This tracks with other independent estimates. Climate Action Tracker's "policies & action" projection has fallen from 3.6C in 2015 to 2.6C in 2026, around ~1C of progress. The IEA saw similar pre-Paris baselines around 3.5C.
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@hausfath@fediscience.org 2026-05-18 15:10
It is also in-line with the new "High" illustrative scenario for CMIP7, which envisions a roll-back of policy and barriers to clean energy development that ends up around 3.2C by 2100.