2026-05-18 15:10 UTC
It is also in-line with the new "High" illustrative scenario for CMIP7, which envisions a roll-back of policy and barriers to clean energy development that ends up around 3.2C by 2100.
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@hausfath@fediscience.org 2026-05-18 15:11
We also cannot rule out higher-warming outcomes. The CMIP7 medium illustrative scenario has a median of 2.8C, but a 5-95% range of 2.1C to 3.7C and a ~2% chance of 4C+ warming once you include climate sensitivity and carbon cycle uncertainties.