2026-05-18 15:11 UTC
We also cannot rule out higher-warming outcomes. The CMIP7 medium illustrative scenario has a median of 2.8C, but a 5-95% range of 2.1C to 3.7C and a ~2% chance of 4C+ warming once you include climate sensitivity and carbon cycle uncertainties.
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@hausfath@fediscience.org 2026-05-18 15:11
It's also ironic to hear the current admin cheer the retirement of high-emissions scenarios while actively rolling back climate policy, restricting clean energy, and propping up coal. The new CMIP7 High scenario explores exactly that world and lands at ~3.2C (with a range of 2.5C to 4.3C).