2026-09-22 15:26 UTC
These arise from two factors: carbon cycle feedbacks – how the biosphere and ocean's ability to absorb carbon changes as we emit more and the world warms, and climate sensitivity – how the interplay of feedbacks like water vapor, clouds, snow and ice, etc. respond to warming.
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@hausfath@fediscience.org 2026-09-22 15:26
So while we think we are heading toward ~3C today, we could really end up at 4C if we role 6s on the proverbial climate dice. Its more useful to treat climate outcomes as a set of risks – the odds of the world warming by 2C, 3C, or 4C over time – rather than a deterministic outcome.