2026-09-22 15:26 UTC
So while we think we are heading toward ~3C today, we could really end up at 4C if we role 6s on the proverbial climate dice. Its more useful to treat climate outcomes as a set of risks – the odds of the world warming by 2C, 3C, or 4C over time – rather than a deterministic outcome.
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@hausfath@fediscience.org 2026-09-22 15:26
And on the path we are on today those odds are deeply worrying. Its virtually certain we reach 2C by 2100. By 2150 we have a 77% chance of being above 3C, a ~30% chance of being above 4C, and a 6% of >5C warming: https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-cmip7-emissions-scenarios-and-how-they-explore-future-climate-change