Post by @jonm@hachyderm.io

2024-05-01 20:53 UTC

@polotek@social.polotek.net I read a book on the general subject of expert estimation once that really stuck with me (although I can't find it now). The essence is that estimators (people who estimate) can be useful tools, but they have to be *calibrated*.

Replies (2)

@jonm@hachyderm.io 2024-05-01 20:55

@polotek@social.polotek.net The idea is that the software industry does this wrong, generally. A calibrated (more on this in a minute) expert can answer questions like "give me two dates where you are 90% sure you'll be done between those dates" (which is, of course, *not* the question we usually ask in the software industry).

Open ##2300424
@JeffGrigg@mastodon.social 2024-05-03 21:32

@jonm@hachyderm.io @polotek@social.polotek.net Calibration was one of the main reasons the agile community adopted "Story Points." One estimates the size/effort of stories with an arbitrary metric, and then measures actual "Velocity" (points completed per unit of time) by the team. This "velocity" measurement, and that the units are NOT obviously time units (like "days" or "weeks") gives the team some protection from being abused / coerced / manipulated by their "superiors."

Open ##2339684