Post by @whbboyd@infosec.exchange

2026-09-29 01:41 UTC

@SnoopJ@hachyderm.io @ifixcoinops@retro.social I think the problem here is that 49^m will give you the number of combinations *including order*. I'm sure *someone* will claim to have a sufficiently discriminating palate to distinguish two Basil Pesto and three Tiramisu [1] from three Tiramisu and two Basil Pesto, but I sure can't. I think you want to divide out by m factorial here to cancel the different orderings. Given that, for m=5, you're at 1% with roughly k=24 thousand pulls; for 50% you need 1.64 million, and for 99% you need 11 million. £110 thousand. I think you need to make the same correction for total combinations, too, which makes the formula that of the binomial coefficient [2] (pronounced "49 choose m" and typeset too complicatedly to toot). 49 choose 5 is 1,906,884. Fedi Never Disappointing awaaaaaaay! [1] I have absolutely no idea what flavors Jelly Belly makes, in case you couldn't tell. [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_coefficient

Replies (4)

@darkuncle@infosec.exchange 2026-09-29 04:26

@whbboyd@infosec.exchange this post alone was worth a follow @SnoopJ@hachyderm.io @ifixcoinops@retro.social

Open ##4890591
@SnoopJ@hachyderm.io 2026-09-29 01:42

@whbboyd@infosec.exchange @ifixcoinops@retro.social aw hell, figures that I missed this. Thanks for pointing it out. £110k is practically free!

Open ##5165153
@ifixcoinops@retro.social 2026-09-29 01:49

@whbboyd@infosec.exchange @SnoopJ@hachyderm.io oh damn you're right, so how many combinations are there then? Assuming five beans a twist? Not as simple as 49x48x47x46x45 surely

Open ##5165155
@jbenjamint@mastodon.scot 2026-09-29 02:59

@whbboyd@infosec.exchange @SnoopJ@hachyderm.io @ifixcoinops@retro.social Umm...am going to suggest the total possible combinations are a wee bit higher. I make it 2,869,865 flavour combos, allowing repetition (53 choose 5). That said, it's 4 am here, I could be dreaming this whole thread.

Open ##5165164