2026-09-28 14:12 UTC
I looked at three different lines of evidence: the literature on El Niño teleconnections, what occurred during the past 8 strongest events since 1950, and the predictions of this year's event from 13 different dynamical models initialized in September.
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@hausfath@fediscience.org 2026-09-28 14:12
Many of the most reliable El Niño impacts are clustered around the tropical Pacific. Drought in Indonesia, the Philippines, the western Pacific islands have shown up in essentially every strong event since the 1950s, and this year’s models agree.