Post #802406
2026-03-24 14:57 UTC
If you ask a large number of people whether asking a large number of people to guess something will often lead, when averaged, to a better guess than an expert would have made, will the predominant answer be "yes" or "no"?
Replies (2)
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@jmeowmeow@hachyderm.io 2026-03-24 14:59
@kfogel@kfogel.org The unlicensed Delphi pool members say yes.
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@rbowen@mastodon.social 2026-03-24 15:05
@kfogel@kfogel.org If you were to ask the general public, I think the predominant answer would be no. But if you asked the sample set of people who follow Karl on Mastodon, I expect that probably more of us have read That Article, and would say yes. https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/08/07/429720443/17-205-people-guessed-the-weight-of-a-cow-heres-how-they-did So I guess it depends who you asked.