Post #3703342
2026-07-09 21:35 UTC
Replies (5)
-
@lurker@awful.systems 2026-07-09 22:16
Oh damn, they originally said it was gonna be called AI 2030, so they pushed it back a bit It’s not a rehash of AI 2027 with moved-back timelines like I thought it would be, instead its what they believe should happen in regards to AI development Plan A is our positive vision for what should happen instead. In this scenario, humanity delays the development of superintelligence until 2040, makes all AI research public, allows dozens of companies globally to catch up to the frontier, and intentionally enters a regime of mutually assured compute destruction. And in the first footnote: So far reality is tracking closer to AI 2027 than even we expected. (2027 was our modal year at time of publication, not our median.) According to them, preliminary analysis of the data as of July 2026 says that rate of progress is 75% of AI 2027. This says Daniel K only believes in a 25% chance of AGI by the end of 2027, their model also hasn’t changed so their medians are still shown as beyond 2027
-
@Soyweiser@awful.systems 2026-07-09 23:12
2040, wasn’t that Kurzweils eventual prediction?
-
@scruiser@awful.systems 2026-07-09 23:44
My favorite part was the section where they worked out the logistics of China hiding a data center inside of a mountain.
-
@Architeuthis@awful.systems 2026-07-10 06:18
There’s a corresponding siskind post also called something something plan A, I skimmed until the part where the US and China take de facto control of chip infrasrtucture and distribution (saying “nationalise” is haram for free market types), basically imagine having to write a letter to the government to formally justify upgrading your computer, and that’s all the AI fanfiction I can tolerate without ruining my breakfast. Also clanker crankers appropriating the term ‘Golden Path’ from Dune is just distasteful.
-
@BioMan@awful.systems 2026-07-10 18:04
Oh man, the “Post ASI” epilogue is a trip. Here’s what happens in 2040: Space beyond the solar system is divided into parcels, increasing in size cubically with distance from Earth. Everyone is given their one-ten-billionth share as a portfolio of lottery tickets, each representing the right to one-ten-billionth chance of getting each parcel. So every human gets a ticket representing a one-ten-billionth chance of owning each star in the Milky Way and each distant galaxy. Before the lottery is drawn, most people who are interested in control over distant space choose to trade their tickets for space properties that suit their interests. Many people aren’t interested in the space lottery, so when they receive the tickets, they sell their tickets for money on the open market to people who value control over space. Somewhat uncomfortably, this leads to the wealthy having disproportionate control over cosmic resources. But it is hard to avoid: if people are allowed to trade their control over the stars for Earth assets, then people wealthy in Earth assets inevitably end up disproportionately influential, and proposals for extreme redistribution of Earth assets have already been rejected as politically infeasible. You can, if you want, go to your space property and live there. If your property is outside the solar system, you will need to either go into cryosleep or upload yourself to a computer to survive the journey. If you hate the idea of cryosleep or uploading, or you want to visit Earth regularly, you should get property in the Solar System. If those don’t bother you, but you’re worried about nearby aliens, get property in the Milky Way or a nearby galaxy. Otherwise, why not claim a distant galaxy for maximal space?