Post #3703923

2026-07-09 22:16 UTC

Oh damn, they originally said it was gonna be called AI 2030, so they pushed it back a bit It’s not a rehash of AI 2027 with moved-back timelines like I thought it would be, instead its what they believe should happen in regards to AI development Plan A is our positive vision for what should happen instead. In this scenario, humanity delays the development of superintelligence until 2040, makes all AI research public, allows dozens of companies globally to catch up to the frontier, and intentionally enters a regime of mutually assured compute destruction. And in the first footnote: So far reality is tracking closer to AI 2027 than even we expected. (2027 was our modal year at time of publication, not our median.) According to them, preliminary analysis of the data as of July 2026 says that rate of progress is 75% of AI 2027. This says Daniel K only believes in a 25% chance of AGI by the end of 2027, their model also hasn’t changed so their medians are still shown as beyond 2027

Replies (3)

@lurker@awful.systems 2026-07-09 23:21

Piggybacking off myself to say that the way they wrote the update on their 2025 review is weird. I’m assuming that they mean 2025 was 65% pace but 2026 crept up to 75%, but the way they wrote it makes me think that they actually meant to say “we originally thought 2025 was 65%, but new data shows it was actually 75%” which would be odd, I’m still assuming the former since it makes more sense to me. (turned this into a second comment so they first one wouldn’t be a wall of text)

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@scruiser@awful.systems 2026-07-09 23:43

So far reality is tracking closer to AI 2027 than even we expected. (2027 was our modal year at time of publication, not our median.) They aren’t even trying to hide the fact that their predictions have already failed but instead claiming victory.

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@BioMan@awful.systems 2026-07-10 18:16

So they really do live in a fictional world, confirmed.

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