Post #3119050

@NCwx Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 300 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 WHAT HAS CHANGED * Nothing appreciable KEY MESSAGES As of 300 AM Friday... 1) Hot, but with low humidity, and dry through Sunday 2) Largely diurnally driven convection possible each day through mid week DISCUSSION As of 300 AM Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot, but with low humidity, and dry through Sunday A mid-level anticyclone over the TN and lwr OH Valleys will drift slowly across the Southeast and reach the FL peninsula and nern Gulf by the end of the weekend. At the surface and through the same time, a continental/Canadian- sourced high now just offshore the Carolinas will drift toward Bermuda while continuing to extend wwd and into the South Atlantic states, while a trough will sharpen in the lee of the srn and cntl Appalachians and precede pre-frontal convection and outflow that may drift from VA Sun to nrn NC by Sun evening and a backdoor, synoptic cold front that will probably settle across cntl NC on Mon. Subsidence and sswly low-level flow related to the sub-tropical ridging, and also increasingly wly/downslope flow over NC by Sun, will yield hot temperatures throughout the period, hottest Sun. Min RH will remain quite low, however, and mostly in the 20s percent, owing to unseasonably low mixed dewpoints each afternoon that will increase about 5 F each day, from upr 40s to around 50 F today to upr 50s to around 60 F by Sun. Heat index values will consequently be lower than the ambient air temperature and well shy of heat- related headlines. Experimental Heat Risk is nonetheless forecast to increase from Minor-Moderate today to Moderate-Major by Sun, with impacts mainly to those sensitive to heat.