Post #2939379

2026-05-29 04:46 UTC

So I was poking around the AI 2027 blog and discovered that they apparently may working on making another scenario, this time titled “AI 2030” they haven’t made any posts about it (that I can find anyways) but if its just an AI 2027 rewrite but with moved back timelines I’d imagine people will be less charitable with them

Replies (2)

@sailor_sega_saturn@awful.systems 2026-05-29 07:22

The distributions below are our team’s probabilities on when AI’s will achieve human level coding performance. So in AI’27 they predicted 2030 will have “1T Wildly Superintelligent copies thinking at 10000x human speed”, “biosphere destroying mirror life” and “brain uploading”. Now they are predicting “maybe it will be able to write C++ in 2030 without constantly falling over (50% probability)”. Seem like a bit of a step back, but I guess we’ll see what they put in their fun interactive website once it’s ready.

Open ##2941582
@TinyTimmyTokyo@awful.systems 2026-05-29 15:34

They’ve been using the excuse that not everyone who participated in the “AI 2027” project agreed on 2027 as the year it all happens. But if that’s the case, why the hell did they call it “AI 2027”? Gotta love the ex post facto of it all.

Open ##2956196