@sailor_sega_saturn@awful.systems
Post #2941582
2026-05-29 07:22 UTC
The distributions below are our team’s probabilities on when AI’s will achieve human level coding performance.
So in AI’27 they predicted 2030 will have “1T Wildly Superintelligent copies thinking at 10000x human speed”, “biosphere destroying mirror life” and “brain uploading”.
Now they are predicting “maybe it will be able to write C++ in 2030 without constantly falling over (50% probability)”.
Seem like a bit of a step back, but I guess we’ll see what they put in their fun interactive website once it’s ready.
Replies (1)
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@lurker@awful.systems 2026-06-03 07:02
Their fun interactive website does exist and the probability of automated coding at the end of the year doesn’t even get to 50% (and its their p10, meaning 90% of simulations of this model beat it out)