Post #2790325
2026-05-05 01:11 UTC
Replies (2)
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@EvergreenGuru@lemmy.world 2026-05-05 01:36
Interesting idea. My best bet is that’s the longest the US can wait for it to open. Meanwhile the Iranians continue to strike back and punish their neighbors hosting US forces, worsening the situation as the US claims to be fixing something that they broke to begin with. Right now propaganda is about how bad life in Iran is and how their government has lost support. The truth is that Iran has been living under US sanctions for years and it’s more likely this war will cause civil unrest in the United States before it convinces the people of Iran to overthrow their government. They’ve already been living at a low standard because of our economic war. We’re not ready because our quality of life can still be impacted significantly. But when will we feel the pain? Right now US political machinations have slowed rising oil prices. The situation shifts when the markets start determining the price of oil. If polymarket is any indicator, then insiders expect that to happen in June. Normal markets mean that the price gets set based on supply. Supply is down, so prices will be up.
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@Photonic@lemmy.world 2026-05-05 08:26
Ah yes, 15,000 additional troops will surely secure a country that is the size of like [six US states combined](https://stevehely.com/2025/06/18/how-big-is-iran-compared-to-the-united-states/). And polymarket bets are only won by those with inside knowledge: > [Just 0.1% of users earn 67% of the profits on the largest platform Polymarket](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/prediction-markets-gambling-polymarket-kalshi-b2970201.html) So I wouldn’t put any hope in whatever they are predicting, since apparently, most people are wrong. Also polymarket bets apply logic and do not account for Taco Tuesdays where logic is wholly absent and only [insiders](https://www.theguardian.com/society/ng-interactive/2026/jan/30/polymarket-prediction-markets-betting) will know what is going to happen a few hours in advance.