Post #2378575

2026-05-11 03:33 UTC

This gives me hope that Australians, by and large, aren’t what #PHON is all about: “Australian voters are sorting not on left-right economic axes but on openness-versus-authoritarian trait dimensions, and the sort is accelerating. Right-wing cultural populism, the One Nation product, mobilises the authoritarian end of that distribution. It is effective in cohorts where authoritarian traits are over-represented: older voters, voters with low formal education, voters in racially and culturally homogeneous areas, voters whose lived experience does not include being on the receiving end of the politics of race.” In the context of a growing #MultiCultural Australia and the aging #WASPish voters, there is hope for a future without a threat from PHON and its current voters. Read more (Long read) - I know it’s #substack but the article is well worth reading if you despair at PHON’s recent electoral gains. https://open.substack.com/pub/redbridgeintel/p/the-wall-between-parramatta-and-bundaberg #Authoritarianism #AusPol #LNP #Racism #Otherism #Anger #Frustration #Antifa #TaxTheRich #Politics #ElectoralAnalysis

Replies (4)

@jonlawrence@social.chinwag.org 2026-05-11 03:38

@RaymondPierreL3@aus.social one very interesting point that Tony Barry has made a couple of times recently is that any perceived alignment with Trump/MAGA makes many potential ON voters reconsider their support.

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@levampyre@chaos.social 2026-05-11 04:16

@RaymondPierreL3@aus.social But isn't that the same as in every Western nation?

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@tonyr641@aus.social 2026-05-11 04:24

@RaymondPierreL3@aus.social This is a great in-depth analysis. MSM's superficial waffle pales in comparison. #auspol

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@Umbreon@donphan.social 2026-05-16 10:53

@RaymondPierreL3@aus.social Heck I come from a largely white, fairly low modern migration and older regional area, and I would say the vast majority of people who live here are disgusted by One Nation and MAGA-style politics. Kind of doesn't the "vibe" of a quiet area with a lot of union identity with a relatively progressive tone. So I'm not that worried despite the Witch's surge. Primarily for the fact that we have compulsory voting, which might actually protect us from PHON. Generally the trend everywhere right wing populist movements seem to cap out at around 30% of the electorate, but really struggle going much further than that. A likely reason being just how specific their demographic is, but also a cult of personality that is tied to an already unpopular foreign personality is an incredibly fragile foundation. But also you could see the "Dutton effect", where outside of some rhetoric they likely will fall apart like they did every time any campaign spotlight is given to them despite initial polling momentum.

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