A financial crisis may be coming - it won't be like last time
2026-04-29 07:01 UTC
Replies (9)
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@Buffalox@lemmy.world 2026-04-29 09:42
It's very obvious that we are very likely headed towards a global recession, driven by the problems Trump has created in the gulf. Of course financial institutions are preparing for the eventuality, and that alone can cause a financial crash if it accelerates. It's extremely difficult to estimate the risk or chance, but the fact that (almost) everybody is aware, makes the risk bigger, because for some weird reason, everybody preparing for a financial crisis doesn't make it less likely because people are prepared, but instead makes it more likely because nobody does anything when the uncertainty passes a certain threshold. And at that point the economy collapses.
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@RecursiveParadox@piefed.social 2026-04-29 14:14
I think this was the plan* all along. This is why all the techbros went fascist. PE was just more quiet about it. The Epstein class wants a global crash so they can buy up what they don't already own for pennies on the dollar. Life becomes a subscription service supported by full governmental capture. * I don't think there was any actual conspiracy - the people all just saw the same opportunity to wreck things and jumped aboard the let them eat cake boat.
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@FreshParsnip@lemmy.ca 2026-04-30 23:36
Why do we not just arrest the billionaires who caused this and seize their money?
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@absquatulate@lemmy.world 2026-04-29 08:40
> Several funds which lend money have declared losses or restricted investors' ability to take out their money. BlackRock, Blackstone, Apollo and Blue Owl have all faced demands for billions of withdrawals from private credit funds - institutions that provide an alternative to traditional banks Those are some...interesting names. Could these be attempts to pull the rug before an AI crash? I'm genuinely asking as I have no clue how funds work
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@Darcranium@lemmy.world 2026-05-01 02:07
Link is paywalled. Can you post the text from the article?
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@ExLisper@lemmy.curiana.net 2026-04-29 10:47
> it won't be like last time It will be way smaller and the consequences will be milder, right?
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@peopleproblems@lemmy.world 2026-04-29 12:15
Its intentional. Don't think for a second the powers that be couldn't stop it.
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@mlg@lemmy.world 2026-04-29 17:47
The thing that kicked off 2007 was that CDOs ended being largely made up of crappy mortgage bonds which caused their massive trillions in debt "value" to dissappear when the underlying bonds failed which was tied to people not paying their mortgage on crappy adjustable mortgage loans. After getting bailed out with a shit ton of tax money, the banks agreed not to repeat the same mistake by ensuring their trillions of debt trading doesn't depend on a single point of failure, so they've diversified it across multiple markets (like how a CDO was otherwise supposed to work) This type of warning shows up every now and then because the vulnerability is still there (since nothing really changed), but its much harder to knock it down without causing some type of collapse in multiple areas first. Right now, I think its estimated that private credit makes up about 40% of their investments into the AI boom, which is 1 trillion dollars exact. That's proportionally less than what CDOs were with mortgage bonds, but it's still entirely possible that a couple of hits in some businesses sectors could collapse the system. Iran actually succeeded in affecting multiple supply chains due to their strait closure, including AI, so if they continue on that path it might actually happen.
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@hanrahan@slrpnk.net 2026-05-01 04:35
this is a little bit hyped though, most investors can take their money out, the funds have just applied the rules. These are unlisted funds, so withdrawals are mostly capped at 5% a month. Retail investors and unlisted funds are a stupid idea though. Quite a few are trying to take their money out to arbitrage the listed funds, which are now "undervalued" compared to the unlisted funds That said, there's a lot of opaqueness in BDC's so eyes wide open. However I recently went long on Ares capital (a small amount), MAIN is the biggest but still overvalued IMO. Id give Blue Owl a miss, at least until the dust stlettles. https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/arcc/