Post #1847569
2026-04-30 23:44 UTC
There is a new study out which shows that physics based weather prediction is better than #slop based predictions when it comes to extreme weather events. This shouldn't really be surprising to anyone who has studied physical or chaotic systems.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aec1433
Replies (1)
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@aoanla@hachyderm.io 2026-05-01 02:11
@hannorein@mastodon.social I seem to recall some general paper on statistical models (the "AI" approach here) showing that this is essentially always going to happen due to the sparsity of data near the tails of the distribution. That paper suggested an over-estimation of rare event frequency though - it was trying to argue that models make the same trade-off as humans do re "1 in a million" events and their significance.