Post #1626190
2026-03-23 09:33 UTC
@CrypticMirror @rpluim @etchedpixels Pre-air strikes Iran had 400kg of 20% enriched U235 which is enough for about 6-10 A-bombs, depending how well-designed. Enough trip or two through the gas ultracentrifuge cascade could take that to 60% at which point they could make far more efficient bombs—maybe a few dozen.
That horse had left the stable by 2020 at the latest.
The reason they haven't used a nuke yet is probably because they don't want to or see any benefit from it.
Replies (1)
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@cstross@wandering.shop 2026-03-23 09:36
@CrypticMirror @rpluim @etchedpixels Probable reasons Iran hasn't nuked anyone: 1. A couple of A-bombs are not a strategic deterrent. 2. Without an SD backing it up, one nuke would invite massive retaliation—by Netanyahu (absolutely guaranteed), from Trump (highly likely). The main military effect of a single nuke today would be political disinhibition: the worst having happened, the next step is escalation. And Iran can't win that game.