Post #108959

2026-01-03 13:01 UTC

@mirrorwitch@awful.systems I note that China is on the verge of producing their own EUV lithography tech (they demo'd it a couple of months back) so TSMC's near-monopoly is on the edge of disintegrating, which means time's up for Taiwan (unless they have some strategic nukes stashed in the basement). If China *already* has EUV lithography machines they could plausibly reveal a front-rank semiconductor fab-line—then demand conditional surrender on terms similar to Hong Kong. Would Trump follow through then?

Replies (2)

@etchedpixels@mastodon.social 2026-01-03 13:23

@cstross@wandering.shop @mirrorwitch@awful.systems I wouldn't credit their EUV readiness so much. A tech demo if it even works is not a production line. However the US depends upon EU companies to produce EUV equipment and they in part depend upon Chinese stuff who in turn depend upon Australian rare earth mining. So we can all have nice things or none of us can. I also question whether China cares what the US thinks about Taiwan at all. It's simply a risk/return calculation on dead young Chinese people - a scarce resource

Open ##108994
@thias@mastodon.social 2026-01-03 16:23

@cstross@wandering.shop @mirrorwitch@awful.systems i feel like the semi conductor race is a bit like the race to make the fastest passenger train in the 30s, makes sense in a consumer economy, once you have a large conflict it does not matter, are the chips in the drones in Ukraine that advanced?

Open ##109339