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Forecast update The upper pattern this morning is defined a trough of low pressure across the Intermountain West with a low centered over southern Idaho. The latest GOES precipitable water imagery indicated dry PWATs between 0.50 and 0.65 inches across the majority of Southeast Arizona, with higher values between 0.65 and 0.90 inches generally NE of Tucson in Graham/Greenlee counties. The trough axis of the larger scale trough extends south into northwest Arizona today, and was responsible for some weak showers and thunderstorms that developed near the White Mountains early this morning. Otherwise, dry conditions will result in sunny skies across the majority of the area today. No updates necessary to the inherited forecast. Issued 8:45 AM MST, Sat Sep 19 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TWC&issuedby=TWC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 #azwx #tucsonwx

Drier air across southeast Arizona will continue into Monday. Moisture then spreads back across portions of southeast Arizona next week for a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will be near to slightly above normal into the middle of next week. Issued 1:17 AM MST, Sat Sep 19 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TWC&issuedby=TWC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Active alerts: @tucsonwxalerts@msto.cx #azwx #tucsonwx

Lingering showers this morning with a chance of storms along the Arizona and New Mexico border this afternoon and evening. Drier conditions move in Friday limiting the daily chance through this weekend into early next week. High temperatures will be below normal today, then be around normal Friday into early next week. Issued 3:19 AM MST, Thu Sep 17 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TWC&issuedby=TWC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Active alerts: @tucsonwxalerts@msto.cx #azwx #tucsonwx

A chance of storms along the Arizona and New Mexico border this afternoon and evening. Drier conditions move in Friday limiting the daily chance through this weekend into early next week. High temperatures will be below normal today, then be around normal Friday into early next week. Reissued 1:56 PM MST, Thu Sep 17 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TWC&issuedby=TWC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Active alerts: Flood Advisory (@tucsonwxalerts@msto.cx) #azwx #tucsonwx

An active week ahead with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Elevated precipitation chances today with a Flash Flood Watch for portions of southeast Arizona. Daily high temperatures will fluctuate between near normal and a few degrees below normal. Issued 3:04 AM MST, Mon Sep 14 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TWC&issuedby=TWC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Active alerts: Flood Watch (@tucsonwxalerts@msto.cx) #azwx #tucsonwx

Forecast update Latest visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear to partly cloudy skies across southeast Arizona with some residual early morning shower and thunderstorm activity dissipating over Graham County at this time. Cumulus clouds are already starting to form which portends to an active day with SPC mesoanalysis indicating MLCAPE values as high as 2000 to 3000 J/KG with dissipating CIN over the next few hours as daytime heating continues. Latest CAMs focus on locales from Tucson north and eastward for the highest storm chances this afternoon which is reasonable based on latest trends. Main concern will continue to be locally heavy rainfall with flash flooding potential with a secondary wind threat. Current forecast is in good shape. No updates this morning. See previous discussion for additional information. Issued 9:34 AM MST, Mon Sep 14 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TWC&issuedby=TWC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 #azwx #tucsonwx

Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, especially across Cochise county southeast of Tucson. Heavy rainfall will the primary hazard from storms today. An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected south of Tucson Friday, with a more typical isolated to scattered coverage of storms anticipated this weekend into next week. High temperatures will will fluctuate between near normal and a few degrees below normal. Issued 1:00 AM MST, Thu Sep 10 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TWC&issuedby=TWC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Active alerts: @tucsonwxalerts@msto.cx #azwx #tucsonwx

Recap: rainfall, past 24 hours 1.06" Italian Trap 0.87" White Tank 0.59" Bellota Ranch Road 0.51" Alamo Tank 0.43" Cienega Creek below I-10 0.24" Tanque Verde Creek at Chiva Tank 0.20" Dan Saddle 0.04" White Tail Campground 0.04" Pantano Wash at Vail 0.04" Green Mountain 11 of 89 gauges across the Tucson metro recorded rain. Washes running: Santa Cruz River: up 0.77 ft, peak 6 ft³/s Santa Cruz River: up 0.40 ft, peak 37 ft³/s Pantano Wash: up 0.38 ft, peak 18 ft³/s Pima County RFCD ALERT network · USGS See it happen? Reply with a photo or video. #azwx #tucsonwx

Expect scattered thunderstorms through Monday with storms capable of strong to severe wind gusts and heavy rainfall. After Monday storm chances begin to decrease. High temperatures will be around normal through much of the coming week. Issued 2:48 AM MST, Sun Aug 30 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TWC&issuedby=TWC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Active alerts: Flood Watch (@tucsonwxalerts@msto.cx) #azwx #tucsonwx

Recap: rainfall, past 24 hours 0.67" Hilltop Road 0.67" Avra Valley Air Park 0.55" Rancho Vistoso 0.47" Picture Rocks Community Center 0.47" Cargodera Canyon 0.47" Brawley Wash at Milewide Road 0.43" Mt Lemmon 0.43" Diamond Bell Ranch 0.39" Rillito Creek at La Cholla Blvd 0.39" Moore Rd at La Cholla Blvd 67 of 89 gauges across the Tucson metro recorded rain. Washes running: Rillito Creek At La Cholla Blvd: up 2.43 ft, peak 531 ft³/s Santa Cruz River: up 2.08 ft, peak 8 ft³/s Rillito Creek: up 1.61 ft, peak 307 ft³/s Pima County RFCD ALERT network · USGS See it happen? Reply with a photo or video. #azwx #tucsonwx