Paul Behrens is the expert on food systems at November's UK National Emergency Briefing.
But this great interview is about The New Abnormal (no new normal, he says, it's only getting more and more abnormal as long as CO2 is emitted), and its impacts on food security, and what we, or at least, the UK need to do to adapt.
Starts at 9:00min, ends 25:00mins https://www.youtube.com/live/206_bow3_Vc
My takeaways:
He explains how UK crop yields are impacted by heat and drought this year, and how it will be reflected in prices in 2027. Shelves won't be empty, but prices for UK_grown food go up.
Then he's asked whether it's true that science used to model increasing yields for higher latitudes from warmer temperatures and CO2 fertilisation.
Paul Behrens answers, yes, that used to be the model outcome. But.
Since then, advances have been made regarding model resolution, and wrong assumptions have been cleared up.
Turns out, CO2 fertilisation does make the plant grow more – but nutrients in the actual crop decline because of the limitations in the soil.
And it turns out that assumptions re benefit of higher annual temperature had to get amended regarding stages in crop growth seasons, and regarding the actual observed climate impacts of °C and available moisture in the soil.
His example: grass stops growing at 29°C.
[Grass and corn stop growing at 29°C, all other plants stop growing at 24°C. Grass and corn can deal with higher temperature because their photosynthesis is of the C4 type. All other food plants and also trees, are type C3.
See Figure 1 in Duffy et al https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/sciadv.aay1052
or see the screenshot of the Figure I'll attach in #2.
He urges dietary change toward plant-based food, away from animal products. "A burger every two weeks, a chicken filler once a week, and a bit of dairy each day", is the science consensus.
If applied, this diet reduces the UK food emissions by 61%. Whoaa!
The size of Scotland could be given back to nature, which would then absorb some of the flood and heat and drought.
He urges crop change toward more resilient crops or toward what used to be typically Southern crops. And he mentions #precisionFermentation as great step forward.
Lastly He speaks of the concept of the National Emergency Briefing & the movie: grassroots organize viewings at local churches or town halls. Viewers aren't left alone with the daunting information like they would be if they watched it on a Youtube version –which, for that reason, isn't made available.
I have a question regarding 61% emission reduction in UK's food once Paul's plant-dominated advice is put in place:
Does UK need to import more veg to satisfy the change, or will UK be able to replace home-grown meat with home-grown veg?
If more imports, is the embedded CO2 part of the -61%?
#foodsecurity #climateChange #NationalEmergencyBriefing