@shituationist@kolektiva.social lots of people have asked me if I think LLMs will result in any of the promises the LLM companies have made, all the way up to and including self-modifying models (superintelligence), and I keep saying "no"
and these people who ask me this, who are typically pretty smart people, but none of them have any actual expertise in ML other than memeing around with ollama or vLLM or maybe tensorflow/transformers for a sophisticated experimenter, so they choose the side of confirmation bias and tell me I'm definitely wrong on this 🙃
if you look closely, you'll notice that OpenAI is already hitting scalability problems keeping ChatGPT up and running, and we know they are having scaling problems because of how the outages are shaped: they come as micro-outages, where inference requests will sporadically fail for short periods of time. this type of availability problem is basically almost always caused by lack of horizontal scaling.
and that's because they simply don't have the inference capacity. they buy all the GPUs, all the RAM, its still not enough.
and the bill is coming due at the end of this quarter for OpenAI, though apparently nvidia have proposed refinancing the debt, so who knows?