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Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson

ragnarbjartur@masto.ai

<p>Political scientist &amp; economist obsessed with data and on a mission to turn it into actionable information. Been mostly active on Twitter, where I&#39;ve reported on the war in πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦.</p>

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” SEP 27, 2026 β–  Engagements below average, while casualties remain above average β–  Equipment losses were well above average, including eight tanks β–  All πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί strike indicators increased day on day; 10 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ air and artillery strikes reported β–  Key πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ targets: a strike-UAV launch site and military support facilities in occupied πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://tinyurl.com/ukrainedashboard

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” SEP 23, 2026 (1 of 2) β–  Engagements remain above average, with increased casualties, but equipment losses remain below average β–  Overnight πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί attacks: 3 S8000s intercepted; 74% drone interception rate; 26 locations hit or affected by debris β–  All πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί strike indicators were below average, but only one πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ air and artillery strike was reported β–  ... πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/s7trvMPsyCc

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” SEP 19, 2026 (1 of 2) β–  Relatively few engagements; casualties below the 7-day average β–  Record for air defence system losses matched (11 systems) β–  Overnight πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί attacks: 3 S8000s intercepted; 79% drone interception rate; 16 locations hit or affected by debris β–  ... πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/mc_pP245J28

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” AUG 7, 2026 (1 of 2) β–  Fewer engagements, with casualties and equipment losses below average β–  πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί KIA have surpassed πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ military deaths in WW2; record 7-day losses of air defence systems and MLRS β–  πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί overnight attacks: all drones; interception rate could be better β–  ... πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/vsgO_lshNA0

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” AUG 4, 2026 (1 of 2) β–  Engagements and casualties below average; 80% of equipment losses consisted of drones β–  Visually confirmed equipment batch: 42 πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί / 41 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ (1.0x) β–  πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί overnight attacks: 1 Iskander-M missile used; drone interception rate could be better; 17 locations hit or affected by debris β–  ... πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/mWPV9burunI

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” AUG 3, 2026 (1 of 2) β–  Engagements well below average, casualties slightly below average; equipment losses remain above average, with increased losses of unarmored vehicles and artillery β–  πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί overnight attacks: all drones, with an improved interception rate; 15 locations hit or affected by debris β–  ... πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/hzC6DuC2VCU

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” JUL 31, 2026 (1 of 2) β–  Casualties remain below the 7-day average despite increased engagements β–  Equipment losses slightly above average, driven by drone losses β–  πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί overnight attacks: all drones, but interception rate could be better; 18 locations hit or affected by debris β–  ... πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/gahHYbLboIE

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” JUL 28, 2026 β–  Fewer engagements, but casualties remain well above average; highest 7-day casualty total of 2026 β–  Equipment losses above average; highest 7-day APV losses of 2026 β–  πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί overnight attacks: drones only, but interception rate could be better β–  3rd highest πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί drone launches since the start of the war; 17 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ strikes reported, and 340 strike drones were launched into πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί and occupied πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/pyx8...

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” JUL 27, 2026 (1 of 2) β–  Engagements and casualties well above average, but no confirmed territorial changes (9 days in a row) β–  Equipment losses below average, but steady tank and APV losses (highest 7-day totals of 2026) β–  Visually confirmed equipment batch: 38 πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί : 64 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ (0.6Γ—) β–  πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί overnight attacks: drones only; interception rate could be better; 17 locations hit or affected by debris β–  ... πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/n4X...

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” JUL 26, 2026 (1 of 2) β–  Increased engagements and casualties slightly above average β–  Equipment losses below average, but 7-day tank losses at their highest level of 2026 following a recent failed assault β–  Visually confirmed equipment batch: 28 πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί losses added β–  ... πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/sfcrwQw-70g

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” JUL 25, 2026 (1 of 2) β–  Engagements and casualties close to average; highest 7-day casualties of 2026 β–  4th highest daily losses and record 7-day losses of unarmored vehicles (incl. fuel trucks); highest 7-day tank losses of 2026 β–  ... πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/tZ8_hb6SbUc

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” JUL 24, 2026 (1 of 2) β–  Engagements and casualties below average; highest 7-day casualties of 2026 β–  5th highest daily losses and record 7-day losses of unarmored vehicles (incl. fuel trucks); highest 7-day tank losses of 2026; a downed aircraft (possibly a Su-57) β–  πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί overnight attacks: 4 of 5 missiles intercepted; decent drone interception rate; 17 locations hit or affected by debris β–  ... πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/p18L...

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” JUL 23, 2026 (1 of 2) β–  Engagements and land-based equipment losses above the 7-day average; casualties also slightly above average β–  Twenty-eight tank losses reported β€” the most since Mar 30, 2024 β€” and record 7-day losses of unarmored vehicles (including fuel trucks) β–  KIU officer death batch: +44, including 17 retired or reserve officers from the army and police β–  ... πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/tIRsTeyXTf0

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” JUL 21, 2026 (1 of 2) β–  Daily engagements and casualties below average, but the 7-day casualty total is the highest of 2026 β–  Daily equipment losses slightly below average, but record 7-day losses, with unarmored vehicle losses (including fuel trucks) also at a record β–  πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί overnight attacks: unusually few drone attacks, but the drone interception rate could be better; 7 locations were hit β–  ... πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/kl...

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” JUL 20, 2026 (1 of 2) β–  Engagements below average, but the 3rd highest casualty count of 2026 and the highest 7-day casualty total of 2026 so far β–  Equipment losses include the 2nd highest losses of unarmored vehicles (incl. fuel trucks) and six air defence systems β–  Visually confirmed equipment batch: 51 πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί : 88 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ β€” subject to change (still being processed) β–  ... πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/u53OusbzFDw

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” JUL 19, 2026 (1 of 2) β–  Casualties above average and the highest 7-day casualty total in 2026 so far; LiveUAmap reports πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί gains of 22 kmΒ² β–  Equipment losses include 3rd highest losses of unarmored vehicles (incl. fuel trucks) and heavy artillery losses β–  Major overnight attacks: 18 of 41 missiles intercepted; drone interception rate could be better; 38 locations hit or affected by debris β–  ... πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/k...

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” JUL 18, 2026 (1 of 2) β–  Engagements and casualties above the 7-day average; no territorial changes reported β–  Equipment losses: 3rd highest losses of unarmored vehicles (incl. fuel trucks), 6 air defense systems destroyed, and one Tu-95 bomber β–  Overnight attacks: 1 of 7 missiles intercepted; drone interception rate could be better; 24 locations hit or affected by debris β–  ... πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/s4WiyJUBM2Y

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” JUL 16, 2026 (1 of 2) β–  More engagements but fewer casualties; LiveUAmap reports an additional 5 kmΒ² of πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί gains β–  Losses of land-based equipment and drones remain above average β–  Two-week KIU officer death batch: +51, including four senior officers β–  Overnight attacks: improved drone interception rate; 3 of 13 missiles intercepted, while 2 others did not reach their targets β–  ... πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/rZRNrT4Daic

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” JUL 15, 2026 (1 of 2) β–  Casualties above average despite engagements being below average; LiveUAmap reports πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί gains of 134 kmΒ² β–  High equipment losses, including 10 tanks (41 in the last 7 days) and one naval vessel β–  πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί overnight attacks: drone interception rate could be better; 2 missiles launched, neither intercepted β–  ... πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/v_uu_RAoou8

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    ⚑️ JUL 15, 2026 REPORT DELAY I&#39;ll be busy tomorrow morning. I&#39;ll post the report later in the day.

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” JUL 12, 2026 β–  Engagements and casualties slightly below the 7-day average β–  Drone and land-based equipment losses above average β–  πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί overnight attacks: 7 of 13 missiles intercepted, but 4 more failed to reach their targets; drone interception rate could be better β–  πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί shelling slightly above average; 20 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ strikes reported and 300 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ strike UAVs launched into πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/ryEdBXR_dCg

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” JUL 9, 2026 β–  Casualties above average, while engagements remain around average; πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί gains of 2 kmΒ² confirmed β–  Equipment losses include 7 tanks; an Su-35 shot down by a Patriot system β–  πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί overnight attacks: drone interception rate could be better, and 2 Iskander-M missiles got through β–  πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί MLRS strikes above average; 13 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ strikes and 270 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ drones (including jet-powered ones) launched into πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/kv2XMj...

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” JUL 5, 2026 β–  7th-highest engagements (most since end of May) and casualties above average β–  Land-based equipment losses above average, both armored and unarmored β–  Overnight attacks: improved drone interception rate; 3 of 4 missiles shot down and the fourth missed target β–  πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί MLRS strikes above average; 13 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ strikes; 30-day strike ratio unchanged πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/h2l3G-rLWPw

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” JUL 2, 2026 β–  Major πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί overnight attacks: 96% of 496 drones intercepted; 48 of 74 missiles shot down; 51 locations hit or affected by debris β–  Engagements remain above the 7-day average, but casualties below it; πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί gains of 56 kmΒ² reported by LiveUAmap β–  KIU: πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί officer deaths reach 8,500 (5.4 per day since start of the invasion) β–  Relatively few strikes on both sides during the day πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/lS51zDKErpQ

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” JUN 30, 2026 β–  Engagements below the 7-day average, but casualties above it; no confirmed territorial changes β–  5th highest daily losses of unarmored vehicles (including fuel trucks); 18 air defence systems hit in the last 7 days β–  πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί overnight attacks: all drones; decent drone interception rate β–  πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί drone launches above average; 17 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ strikes reported and 400 drones launched into πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/mTCar9rXfdg

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” JUN 27, 2026 β–  Engagements and casualties remain above average; no confirmed territorial changes β–  4th highest losses of unarmored vehicles (including fuel trucks); drone losses slightly below average β–  πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί overnight attacks: drone attacks above average; interception rate could be better β–  πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί drone launches and air strikes above average; 12 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ strikes reported and 310 drones launched into πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί; 30-day strike ratio remains in the single digits πŸ“ˆ https://datastudio....

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&amp;#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” APR 25, 2026 β–  Major πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί attack wave: 619 drone attacks, 94% intercepted; 30 of 47 missiles intercepted; 32 locations hit β–  Most engagements this month, highest casualties in two weeks; no confirmed territorial changes β–  Increased drone and land-based equipment losses but still below average β–  10 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ strikes reported; πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί air strikes above average, while other strike indicators below average πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/rhALD...

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&amp;#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” APR 26, 2026 β–  Engagements and casualties below average; no confirmed territorial changes β–  Considerable drone losses (12th-highest); high artillery losses β–  πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί overnight attacks: all drones; interception rate could be better β–  Most πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ strikes this month so far; πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί drone launches and shelling above average πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/iK7krsaY9sY

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&amp;#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” APR 27, 2026 β–  Most engagements this month so far, and far more than expected based on the evening report β–  Casualties and equipment losses well below average; no confirmed territorial changes β–  Relatively few overnight attacks (all drones); interception rate on the lower side β–  3 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ strikes reported; πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί MLRS and air strikes above average πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/ly2dKWa4KE4

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    ⚑️ RUSSIA&amp;#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β€” APR 16, 2026 β–  Major πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί overnight attack wave: 659 strike drones (97% intercepted), 44 missiles (31 intercepted) β–  Engagements and casualties slightly above average; no territorial change β–  πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί drone losses below average; unarmored vehicle losses slightly above average β–  7 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ strikes reported; πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί drone launches, shelling, and air strikes above average πŸ“ˆ See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/iSy_fXsK068