Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson
ragnarbjartur@masto.ai
<p>Political scientist & economist obsessed with data and on a mission to turn it into actionable information. Been mostly active on Twitter, where I've reported on the war in πΊπ¦.</p>
Posts
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β SEP 27, 2026 β Engagements below average, while casualties remain above average β Equipment losses were well above average, including eight tanks β All π·πΊ strike indicators increased day on day; 10 πΊπ¦ air and artillery strikes reported β Key πΊπ¦ targets: a strike-UAV launch site and military support facilities in occupied πΊπ¦ π See dashboard for full data: https://tinyurl.com/ukrainedashboard
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β SEP 23, 2026 (1 of 2) β Engagements remain above average, with increased casualties, but equipment losses remain below average β Overnight π·πΊ attacks: 3 S8000s intercepted; 74% drone interception rate; 26 locations hit or affected by debris β All π·πΊ strike indicators were below average, but only one πΊπ¦ air and artillery strike was reported β ... π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/s7trvMPsyCc
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β SEP 19, 2026 (1 of 2) β Relatively few engagements; casualties below the 7-day average β Record for air defence system losses matched (11 systems) β Overnight π·πΊ attacks: 3 S8000s intercepted; 79% drone interception rate; 16 locations hit or affected by debris β ... π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/mc_pP245J28
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β AUG 7, 2026 (1 of 2) β Fewer engagements, with casualties and equipment losses below average β π·πΊ KIA have surpassed π¬π§ military deaths in WW2; record 7-day losses of air defence systems and MLRS β π·πΊ overnight attacks: all drones; interception rate could be better β ... π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/vsgO_lshNA0
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β AUG 4, 2026 (1 of 2) β Engagements and casualties below average; 80% of equipment losses consisted of drones β Visually confirmed equipment batch: 42 π·πΊ / 41 πΊπ¦ (1.0x) β π·πΊ overnight attacks: 1 Iskander-M missile used; drone interception rate could be better; 17 locations hit or affected by debris β ... π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/mWPV9burunI
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β AUG 3, 2026 (1 of 2) β Engagements well below average, casualties slightly below average; equipment losses remain above average, with increased losses of unarmored vehicles and artillery β π·πΊ overnight attacks: all drones, with an improved interception rate; 15 locations hit or affected by debris β ... π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/hzC6DuC2VCU
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β JUL 31, 2026 (1 of 2) β Casualties remain below the 7-day average despite increased engagements β Equipment losses slightly above average, driven by drone losses β π·πΊ overnight attacks: all drones, but interception rate could be better; 18 locations hit or affected by debris β ... π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/gahHYbLboIE
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β JUL 28, 2026 β Fewer engagements, but casualties remain well above average; highest 7-day casualty total of 2026 β Equipment losses above average; highest 7-day APV losses of 2026 β π·πΊ overnight attacks: drones only, but interception rate could be better β 3rd highest π·πΊ drone launches since the start of the war; 17 πΊπ¦ strikes reported, and 340 strike drones were launched into π·πΊ and occupied πΊπ¦ π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/pyx8...
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β JUL 27, 2026 (1 of 2) β Engagements and casualties well above average, but no confirmed territorial changes (9 days in a row) β Equipment losses below average, but steady tank and APV losses (highest 7-day totals of 2026) β Visually confirmed equipment batch: 38 π·πΊ : 64 πΊπ¦ (0.6Γ) β π·πΊ overnight attacks: drones only; interception rate could be better; 17 locations hit or affected by debris β ... π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/n4X...
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β JUL 26, 2026 (1 of 2) β Increased engagements and casualties slightly above average β Equipment losses below average, but 7-day tank losses at their highest level of 2026 following a recent failed assault β Visually confirmed equipment batch: 28 π·πΊ losses added β ... π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/sfcrwQw-70g
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β JUL 25, 2026 (1 of 2) β Engagements and casualties close to average; highest 7-day casualties of 2026 β 4th highest daily losses and record 7-day losses of unarmored vehicles (incl. fuel trucks); highest 7-day tank losses of 2026 β ... π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/tZ8_hb6SbUc
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β JUL 24, 2026 (1 of 2) β Engagements and casualties below average; highest 7-day casualties of 2026 β 5th highest daily losses and record 7-day losses of unarmored vehicles (incl. fuel trucks); highest 7-day tank losses of 2026; a downed aircraft (possibly a Su-57) β π·πΊ overnight attacks: 4 of 5 missiles intercepted; decent drone interception rate; 17 locations hit or affected by debris β ... π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/p18L...
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β JUL 23, 2026 (1 of 2) β Engagements and land-based equipment losses above the 7-day average; casualties also slightly above average β Twenty-eight tank losses reported β the most since Mar 30, 2024 β and record 7-day losses of unarmored vehicles (including fuel trucks) β KIU officer death batch: +44, including 17 retired or reserve officers from the army and police β ... π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/tIRsTeyXTf0
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β JUL 21, 2026 (1 of 2) β Daily engagements and casualties below average, but the 7-day casualty total is the highest of 2026 β Daily equipment losses slightly below average, but record 7-day losses, with unarmored vehicle losses (including fuel trucks) also at a record β π·πΊ overnight attacks: unusually few drone attacks, but the drone interception rate could be better; 7 locations were hit β ... π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/kl...
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β JUL 20, 2026 (1 of 2) β Engagements below average, but the 3rd highest casualty count of 2026 and the highest 7-day casualty total of 2026 so far β Equipment losses include the 2nd highest losses of unarmored vehicles (incl. fuel trucks) and six air defence systems β Visually confirmed equipment batch: 51 π·πΊ : 88 πΊπ¦ β subject to change (still being processed) β ... π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/u53OusbzFDw
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β JUL 19, 2026 (1 of 2) β Casualties above average and the highest 7-day casualty total in 2026 so far; LiveUAmap reports π·πΊ gains of 22 kmΒ² β Equipment losses include 3rd highest losses of unarmored vehicles (incl. fuel trucks) and heavy artillery losses β Major overnight attacks: 18 of 41 missiles intercepted; drone interception rate could be better; 38 locations hit or affected by debris β ... π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/k...
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β JUL 18, 2026 (1 of 2) β Engagements and casualties above the 7-day average; no territorial changes reported β Equipment losses: 3rd highest losses of unarmored vehicles (incl. fuel trucks), 6 air defense systems destroyed, and one Tu-95 bomber β Overnight attacks: 1 of 7 missiles intercepted; drone interception rate could be better; 24 locations hit or affected by debris β ... π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/s4WiyJUBM2Y
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β JUL 16, 2026 (1 of 2) β More engagements but fewer casualties; LiveUAmap reports an additional 5 kmΒ² of π·πΊ gains β Losses of land-based equipment and drones remain above average β Two-week KIU officer death batch: +51, including four senior officers β Overnight attacks: improved drone interception rate; 3 of 13 missiles intercepted, while 2 others did not reach their targets β ... π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/rZRNrT4Daic
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β JUL 15, 2026 (1 of 2) β Casualties above average despite engagements being below average; LiveUAmap reports π·πΊ gains of 134 kmΒ² β High equipment losses, including 10 tanks (41 in the last 7 days) and one naval vessel β π·πΊ overnight attacks: drone interception rate could be better; 2 missiles launched, neither intercepted β ... π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/v_uu_RAoou8
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β‘οΈ JUL 15, 2026 REPORT DELAY I'll be busy tomorrow morning. I'll post the report later in the day.
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β JUL 12, 2026 β Engagements and casualties slightly below the 7-day average β Drone and land-based equipment losses above average β π·πΊ overnight attacks: 7 of 13 missiles intercepted, but 4 more failed to reach their targets; drone interception rate could be better β π·πΊ shelling slightly above average; 20 πΊπ¦ strikes reported and 300 πΊπ¦ strike UAVs launched into π·πΊ π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/ryEdBXR_dCg
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β JUL 9, 2026 β Casualties above average, while engagements remain around average; π·πΊ gains of 2 kmΒ² confirmed β Equipment losses include 7 tanks; an Su-35 shot down by a Patriot system β π·πΊ overnight attacks: drone interception rate could be better, and 2 Iskander-M missiles got through β π·πΊ MLRS strikes above average; 13 πΊπ¦ strikes and 270 πΊπ¦ drones (including jet-powered ones) launched into π·πΊ π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/kv2XMj...
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β JUL 5, 2026 β 7th-highest engagements (most since end of May) and casualties above average β Land-based equipment losses above average, both armored and unarmored β Overnight attacks: improved drone interception rate; 3 of 4 missiles shot down and the fourth missed target β π·πΊ MLRS strikes above average; 13 πΊπ¦ strikes; 30-day strike ratio unchanged π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/h2l3G-rLWPw
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β JUL 2, 2026 β Major π·πΊ overnight attacks: 96% of 496 drones intercepted; 48 of 74 missiles shot down; 51 locations hit or affected by debris β Engagements remain above the 7-day average, but casualties below it; π·πΊ gains of 56 kmΒ² reported by LiveUAmap β KIU: π·πΊ officer deaths reach 8,500 (5.4 per day since start of the invasion) β Relatively few strikes on both sides during the day π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/lS51zDKErpQ
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β JUN 30, 2026 β Engagements below the 7-day average, but casualties above it; no confirmed territorial changes β 5th highest daily losses of unarmored vehicles (including fuel trucks); 18 air defence systems hit in the last 7 days β π·πΊ overnight attacks: all drones; decent drone interception rate β π·πΊ drone launches above average; 17 πΊπ¦ strikes reported and 400 drones launched into π·πΊ π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/mTCar9rXfdg
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β JUN 27, 2026 β Engagements and casualties remain above average; no confirmed territorial changes β 4th highest losses of unarmored vehicles (including fuel trucks); drone losses slightly below average β π·πΊ overnight attacks: drone attacks above average; interception rate could be better β π·πΊ drone launches and air strikes above average; 12 πΊπ¦ strikes reported and 310 drones launched into π·πΊ; 30-day strike ratio remains in the single digits π https://datastudio....
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β APR 25, 2026 β Major π·πΊ attack wave: 619 drone attacks, 94% intercepted; 30 of 47 missiles intercepted; 32 locations hit β Most engagements this month, highest casualties in two weeks; no confirmed territorial changes β Increased drone and land-based equipment losses but still below average β 10 πΊπ¦ strikes reported; π·πΊ air strikes above average, while other strike indicators below average π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/rhALD...
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β APR 26, 2026 β Engagements and casualties below average; no confirmed territorial changes β Considerable drone losses (12th-highest); high artillery losses β π·πΊ overnight attacks: all drones; interception rate could be better β Most πΊπ¦ strikes this month so far; π·πΊ drone launches and shelling above average π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/iK7krsaY9sY
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β APR 27, 2026 β Most engagements this month so far, and far more than expected based on the evening report β Casualties and equipment losses well below average; no confirmed territorial changes β Relatively few overnight attacks (all drones); interception rate on the lower side β 3 πΊπ¦ strikes reported; π·πΊ MLRS and air strikes above average π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/ly2dKWa4KE4
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β‘οΈ RUSSIA&#39;S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE β APR 16, 2026 β Major π·πΊ overnight attack wave: 659 strike drones (97% intercepted), 44 missiles (31 intercepted) β Engagements and casualties slightly above average; no territorial change β π·πΊ drone losses below average; unarmored vehicle losses slightly above average β 7 πΊπ¦ strikes reported; π·πΊ drone launches, shelling, and air strikes above average π See dashboard for full data: https://datastudio.google.com/s/iSy_fXsK068