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  If we do not slam the brakes on producing electricity with coal & gas, and burning oil to move around temperatures will continue to rise and climate chaos will spread. Since Aug 7 every day has been a new record above preindustrial. Aug will now become the hottest Aug ever and 2026 the hottest year

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  NEW from C3S: “The average global temperature for the last 12 months (August 2025 to July 2026) was 1.45°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.” This is up from 1.43°C in June. The La Niña dip is now in the rear-view mirror. Full update here: https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-july-2026

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  "The climate emergency kills and that’s why it’s not enough to address the consequences, which we do; what we have to do is reduce its causes, anticipate its effects, and, consequently, better prepare our country to protect people’s lives."—Pedro Sánchez 100% correct. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/aug/02/climate-change-kills-pedro-sanchez-speaks-plain-truth-to-spains-deniers

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  Echoing a global sentiment: “I can think of only one thing more satiric than the only country on Earth that still routinely makes fun of soccer, fixing the world’s biggest soccer tournament in their own favour. That would be fixing it and losing anyway.” 😅 https://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/soccer/article-belgium-vs-usa-world-cup-trump-infantino-balogun/

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  Climate Progress Top 10: 1. Estonia 2. Luxembourg 3. United Kingdom 4. Finland 5. Netherlands 6. Germany 7. France 8. Norway 9. Sweden 10. Austria Of course the US is slipping, intent on staying the greatest atmospheric polluter of all time. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jul/08/climate-change-crisis-europe-us

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  NEW from C3S: June was 1.39°C above the estimated 1850-1900 pre-industrial average for the month. The average global temperature for the last 12 months (July 2025 to June 2026) was 1.43°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. Details: https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-june-2026

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  For the most part, we are completely & utterly unprepared for ~1.5ºC of heating. We underestimate the high risks at this level of heating. We are certain, given our current non-emergency approach to curbing fossil fuel burning, that 2ºC will be passed. What happens then? https://www.theguardian.com/education/2026/jul/11/uk-pupils-struggle-extreme-heat-schools-classrooms

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  From the frontlines of the #ClimateCrisis https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp9ld3p324jo This tragic story highlights the need for a personal Resilience Plan. - Understand the risks where you live. - Have a plan to mitigate against those. Here is something I shared for our area: https://peterdutoit.com/are-you-fire-ready/

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  WTF check this from the president of the country that has produced more atmospheric pollution than any other on earth, which is directly linked to causing the conditions that make wild fires more likely and more intense. Everyone should be imposing tariffs on the US! https://www.ft.com/content/fa4e24db-9324-47e2-8512-a581ca9c1aba?syn-25a6b1a6=1

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  “The last time the Netherlands hit a Level 2 water shortage was in 2022. If the drought continues, the assessment could be elevated to a Level 3, which is considered a national crisis. That last happened in 2003.” https://www.dutchnews.nl/2026/07/the-netherlands-is-officially-in-a-water-shortage/

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  Dispatch from the #ClimateCrisis frontlines https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jul/20/weather-tracker-flooding-landslides-asia-vietnam-southern-china-south-korea

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  Disinformation allies: “The United States and Russia, two state actors spreading climate disinformation in Europe.” https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260720-foreign-state-actors-exploiting-climate-crises-spread-disinformation

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  Reminder from Hansen et al (April 2026) “We infer that 2026 is likely to be the warmest year in the period of instrumental data, based on a physics-based approach with identifiable assumptions. This approach may help us learn something in 2026 about the mechanisms of climate change.” https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2026/2026GlobalTemperature.2026.04.30.pdf

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  “The 2026 global SST surpasses the 2024 global SST by mid-June; thus, given the lag, 2024 might remain warmer than 2026 in July, but the final five months of the year should have 2026 as warmer than 2024. We expect the gap in the stretch run (November, December) to be so large as to (unfortunately) make 2026 the hottest year - until 2027, which will be even hotter.”—Hansen et al Source: https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2026/BewareMediaHype.2026.07.23.pdf

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  ICYMI Europe as we are about to cross 1.5°C permanently. Reminder of this from the IPCC in 2023: “Risks are increasing with every increment of warming. High risks are now assessed to occur at lower global warming levels.” https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/extreme-heatwave-excessive-heat-dome-mediterranean-forecast-europe-july-august-2026-mk/

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  The El Niño’s engine room is still firing on all cylinders. Upper-ocean heat in 180–100°W surges past 2.5°C, fueling the intensifying event. Brace for impact.

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  And so the El Niño chaos begins: “Weeklong rainstorms blamed on El Niño have killed at least 10 people in Chile, with emergency teams racing on Tuesday to reach more than 100,000 residents stranded by flash floods” https://apnews.com/article/chile-rainstorm-floods-el-nino-weather-emergency-16047b0d66f1ad019a1c7a05d3a10687

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  This mid-2026. What happens in 2027 when the El Niño impacts arrive in full force? This all at ~1.5°C of heating and ~427 ppm CO2 “Spain is bracing for what meteorologists warn could be one of the most intense and dangerous early-summer thermal anomalies in recent history” https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/extreme-heatwave-excessive-heat-dome-spain-portugal-iberia-europe-july-2026-mk/

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  “I thought I would have time to prepare.” IPCC 2023: “ High risks are now assessed to occur at lower global warming levels.” We continue to underestimate the risk as we reach 1.5°C of heating. For the most part we are not prepared. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2026/07/19/an-organic-farmer-s-dismay-at-the-speed-of-climate-change-i-thought-i-would-have-time-to-prepare_6755633_19.html

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  The CCSR/IRI Multi-Model Probability Forecast (issued July) for Precipitation and Temperature for South Africa covering Aug-Jan 2027 It looks like later in the year the chances of very strong El Niño hitting us hard is substantial. Brace for impact. Full global forecast: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

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  As you can see sea surface temperatures have been in record territory since June 18. What happens in the oceans doesn't stay in the oceans Brace for impact.

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  ⚠️ Prudent risk management requires that you understand, with as much clarity as possible, what impacts El Niño events have on the area where you live. Then prepare as best you can for these impacts. #EarlyWarnings #ElNino #Adaptation https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-strongest-el-nino-ever

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  Well there you have it - the oceans are currently hotter than they have ever been for this time of year. Brought to you by our relentless fossil fuel burning ways.

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  As we take stock of the destruction caused by this week's extreme weather events in the Western Cape it is time to bring the adaptation conversation to centre stage. This is what needs to be done: https://peterdutoit.com/western-cape-storms-the-urgent-need-for-climate-adaptation/ #Adaptation #ClimateCrisis

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  NEW from C3S: "April 2026 was 1.43°C above the estimated 1850-1900 average used to define the pre-industrial level." The 12-month running mean is now 1.42ºC and likely the bottom of the La Niña. Let us see what happens in May. Climate Bulletin here: https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-april-2026 #ClimateLiteracy

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  The following countries have instituted some form of work-from-home in response to the oil shortage: 🇰🇭 Cambodia 🇪🇬 Egypt 🇮🇩 Indonesia 🇰🇷 South Korea 🇲🇾 Malaysia 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands 🇲🇲 Myanmar 🇵🇰 Pakistan 🇵🇪 Peru 🇵🇭 Philippines 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka 🇹🇭 Thailand 🇻🇳 Vietnam Why is this not done everywhere permanently to cut emissions!? Data: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/2026-energy-crisis-policy-response-tracker

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  “During the summer of 2025, which was the hottest on record and spanned the period from June through September, 9,203 people in Tokyo were transported to hospitals due to heatstroke. This figure was 2.7 times higher than in 2021 and has continued to increase year by year.” https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260501/p2a/00m/0na/007000c

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  Spare a thought for the vulnerable communities in our area. This event looks like it is going to be dumping a *lot* of water 😳

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  Using RONI, the most extreme El Niño recorded in the last 76 years was in 1982/83 where the anomaly peaked at 2.5°C If the current forecast holds then the coming event will top that! The kicker: 1982/83 global temps were ~0.47°C above preindustrial. Current 12-month mean 1.42°C! Brace for impact!

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  This is not normal. “Strong sea surface temperature anomalies were observed in the western, northeastern, and southeastern tropical Pacific in spring 2026, forming a rare and extreme annular warming pattern in the tropical Pacific over the past 40 years.” “Extreme spring Pacific annular warming elevates the 2026/27 El Niño” https://spj.science.org/doi/epdf/10.34133/olar.0153