2026-09-14 14:30 UTC
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@tucsonwx@msto.cx 2026-09-14 17:30
Forecast update Latest visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear to partly cloudy skies across southeast Arizona with some residual early morning shower and thunderstorm activity dissipating over Graham County at this time. Cumulus clouds are already starting to form which portends to an active day with SPC mesoanalysis indicating MLCAPE values as high as 2000 to 3000 J/KG with dissipating CIN over the next few hours as daytime heating continues. Latest CAMs focus on locales from Tucson north and eastward for the highest storm chances this afternoon which is reasonable based on latest trends. Main concern will continue to be locally heavy rainfall with flash flooding potential with a secondary wind threat. Current forecast is in good shape. No updates this morning. See previous discussion for additional information. Issued 9:34 AM MST, Mon Sep 14 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TWC&issuedby=TWC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 #azwx #tucsonwx