Post by @ShadSterling@mastodon.social

2026-01-11 18:58 UTC

@martinvermeer@fediscience.org @yokofakun@genomic.social I don’t see your claim in the link, but it sounds like you’re saying that the concentrations of CO₂ in the atmosphere and ocean are far out of equilibrium, and would rapidly approach equilibrium by CO₂ moving into the ocean. If that rate hasn’t been keeping up with emissions already I don’t see why it would catch up quickly. But I suppose the idea does illustrate that I’d have to say more to justify treating that reference as a floor

Replies (1)

@martinvermeer@fediscience.org 2026-01-11 20:22

@ShadSterling@mastodon.social @yokofakun@genomic.social Yes, the concentrations of CO2 in atmosphere and ocean are far out of equilibrium: at present, of every unit of CO2 that is emitted, only about half stays in the atmosphere, the other half goes into the ocean, like, immediately. Very rough numbers, and also vegetation plays a role, both in CO2 release by land-use change, and absorption by photosynthesis. Now if emissions stop, atmospheric concentrations will drop quickly, at least initially, approaching equilibrium. In reality it is more complicated, as you have to distinguish the surface ocean and the deep ocean. Atmosphere and surface ocean equilibrate rapidly, but the deep ocean has a much longer time scale.

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