2026-07-13 15:20 UTC
Currently 13 out of 14 dynamical models expect a record setting event based on the Niño 3.4 region sea surface temperature anomalies (ONI), with overall odds of a record sitting at 91% across all 667 model ensemble members.
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@hausfath@fediscience.org 2026-07-13 15:20
If we instead look at the new relative oceanic niño index (RONI) that subtracts out warming across the tropical oceans, 11 of 14 models predict a record strong 2026/2027 El Niño event, with odds of a record sitting around 77%.