2024-05-01 21:00 UTC
@polotek@social.polotek.net The idea is that I probably know *something* about the answer. Like I could very easily say "Elvis was born between 1776 and 2024", and of course I would be 100% correct.
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@jonm@hachyderm.io 2024-05-01 21:02
@polotek@social.polotek.net So then what you do is answer like 20 of those kinds of questions, and then score yourself. The point is that you want to get exactly 18 right (i.e. you actually *want* to get 2 wrong). This prevents you from sandbagging; if you get them all right, then you realize your sense of 90% confidence is too conservative. If you get too many wrong, you learn that your sense of 90% confidence is too aggressive.