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@innerproduct@mathstodon.xyz

2026-10-15 11:37 UTC

**At most** $1T is my rough, back of the envelope, estimate of what Anthropic's market capitalization should be. This is based on the reported quarterly **revenue** (not profit) of $16.8B and some very, very rough arithmetic. One can imagine an annual revenue of about $100B which means, at 50% margin, annual earnings of about $50B, and let's say we value them at a P/E ratio of 20. This yields $1T. For me this would be an upper bound, since I think I have been generous with every number above. And therefore, I expect that, at IPO or shortly afterwards, they will be valued at about $2T. Since markets are typically either over-optimistic or over-pessimistic.

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