2026-07-06 15:24 UTC
July ECMWF runs are in and forecast an even more extreme El Niño event than the prior June runs. ENSO3.4 region temperatures reach 3.9C in December, and forecasts are around 0.3C warmer than they were in June.
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@hausfath@fediscience.org 2026-07-06 15:24
If we look at RONI – which differences tropical sea surface temperatures from the ENSO3.4 region temperatures – we see an event reaching 3.3C in December, and are about 0.2C warmer than the June forecasts.