Ukraine Brief — 2026-10-11 Trump's demand to replace Zelensky, after Kyiv criticized the diesel sanctions-relief deal, marks the sharpest Washington-Kyiv rupture since February 2025. A trilateral session with Ukraine is unlikely before mid-November, as Moscow has claimed control over timing. Congress is likely to introduce bipartisan legislation blocking Russian oil purchases by October 31. High confidence reflects Fitzpatrick's public commitment and cross-party objections. A scheduled floor vote would signal legislative momentum. Russia's guided-bomb campaign killed at least 98 civilians over four days, including 20 in a Zaporizhzhia apartment strike, exposing a short-range air defense gap that current Western aid does not close. Ukraine struck Yandex data centers on consecutive nights, disabling AI supercomputers and disrupting banking, rail and telecom. Another Russian data center is likely to be struck by the end of October. High confidence reflects consecutive strikes and Kyiv's stated retaliation policy. Seoul's ambassador recall over Zelensky's North Korean POW disclosure is unlikely to escalate to sanctions or cooperation cuts by November 15, as South Korea's need for Ukrainian intelligence on North Korean forces constrains its options. High confidence reflects consistent reporting across outlets. Both Russia and Ukraine are very unlikely to accept Turkey's proposed halt to Black Sea shipping attacks by November 15, as each views port strikes as winter leverage. https://icbrief.org/ukraine/ #Ukraine #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar