2026-09-18 11:22 UTC
My second level is what I expect to happen.
I expect a consolidation phase comparable to the dot-com correction around 2001. This is an analogy, not a claim that the timeline or outcome will repeat exactly.
Too many companies currently depend on continuing capital, falling compute costs, expanding demand, and a future path to margins, all at the same time. Those assumptions will not hold equally for everyone. Some firms will disappear, merge, or be absorbed. Infrastructure may be repriced. Today’s apparent leaders may not remain the leaders.
I do not know when this correction comes. The future has been oddly reluctant to share its calendar. I would be more surprised if it never came.
28/34
Replies (1)
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@masek@infosec.exchange 2026-09-18 11:23
The death of companies is not the death of a technology. The dot-com crash did not kill the web. Netscape’s disappearance did not make the browser irrelevant. A company obituary is not a protocol obituary. A consolidation in AI could destroy capital, jobs, and individual firms while leaving useful models, methods, infrastructure, and knowledge behind. That does not make the damage harmless. It only means we should not confuse the prospects of current vendors with those of the underlying technology. AI can be overfinanced, overpromised, and still remain consequential. 29/34