2026-05-18 15:10 UTC
The new van Vuuren et al 2026 paper formally retired RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 from the upcoming IPCC AR7. Cue celebration from skeptics (including Donald Trump: "WRONG! WRONG! WRONG!") and pushback from folks who say nothing has actually changed https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/2627/2026/
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@hausfath@fediscience.org 2026-05-18 15:10
When RCP8.5 was published in 2011, global emissions had just grown 30% in a decade, clean energy was expensive, and EVs barely existed. Even then, RCP8.5 was chosen to represent the ~90th percentile of baseline scenarios. It was always the high end, not the central case. 3/11