Post #455876
2026-02-28 16:09 UTC
@JessTheUnstill@infosec.exchange Not necessarily. Tactical voting is quite common and becoming more so. It's possible we end up with no party having a majority due to the anti reform vote coordinating on a constituency-by-constituency basis*. I consider that the most likely outcome, probably with some sort of 'progressive alliance' coalition government as a result (Labour PM, mix of Green/Lib/Lab ministers). Labour+Con is also possible as an 'establishment coalition' but that'd be lab signing their own death warrant.
*If Reform were more popular it'd be more of a concern, but they've never hit polling above 33% so they likely just don't have the support to capitalise fully on a split left, bearing in mind that the 33% peak was a one-off and they usually poll about twenty-something. The right is less popular and almost as divided as the left, what with the Tories and Lowe's new outfit, and a lot of people really dislike Reform and will hold their noses and vote for whoever will keep them out.
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@afb@mastodonapp.uk 2026-02-28 16:10
@JessTheUnstill@infosec.exchange All that said, we're way too far from a GE to really make any firm predictions. We could be too busy fighting off an alien invasion in the latter half of the decade to bother with the election.