Post #4387870
2026-08-05 01:56 UTC
Replies (8)
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@paco@infosec.exchange 2026-08-05 02:26
@maxleibman@beige.party first, the naive counter argument: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/04/amazon-crossed-3-trillion-for-the-first-time-monda/ Google and Amazon massively increasing in value (with Amazon led by AWS) based on big increases in revenue. “Net sales rose 20% year over year to $200.6 billion. Operating income climbed 43% to $27.5 billion, up from $19.2 billion a year earlier.” The real answer, I think, is under the surface. They’re selling raw compute to the big AI companies. They’re getting rich selling shovels in the gold rush, not mining (AI) gold. Profits are up because of AI, but not because of some amazing efficiency gain. Because OpenAI and Anthropic are paying obscene amounts of money for compute. And the money isn’t coming from end users or customers, but from the investors pouring money into the AI companies. So not actually disagreeing with you at all. Making the naive counter argument and then debunking it myself.
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@ahltorp@mastodon.nu 2026-08-05 06:15
@maxleibman@beige.party Two days ago, posted that I can now achieve this 10x speed. Might contain sarcasm. https://mastodon.nu/@ahltorp/117031531816219566
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@n_dimension@infosec.exchange 2026-08-05 06:24
@maxleibman@beige.party I'm an ex-Alpha geek computer pioneer with my brain turning to mush. I have a sign by my egress door "Put on pants" The gif below is some screens stitched together from my Ai harness engine. It took me 2 years to put together a PHP content manager (like WP, but way shittier)... ...this harness would take me something like 4 years to put together. I made it in 2 months (of interactive, non contiguous progress) this is V4. Oh its also in Python, a language I have 0% familiarity with. You DEFINITELY get the x10 You ask, where is the proof? The proof is in the recruitment ads, all the geeks are bitching how few jobs there are. #x10
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@kento@hachyderm.io 2026-08-05 03:38
@maxleibman@beige.party I've never known engineering output to scale linearly with profit? Outside tiny startups. At the small side, I expect we'll see a rise in very niche companies that previously may not have been feasible. Those with larger markets will ship faster and probably grow faster than in the past. The big companies, are already big. eg I can't see AWS S3 suddenly going 10x, they already have the features and now it's mostly adoption and efficiency. Which takes the form of MS/Goog layoffs. Funny enough, in the middle-tier, I've heard some are actually experiencing some margin erosion because features are suddenly a weak moat...
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@n_dimension@infosec.exchange 2026-08-05 06:26
@maxleibman@beige.party I'm an ex-Alpha geek computer pioneer with my brain turning to mush. I have a sign by my egress door "Put on pants" The gif below is some screens stitched together from my Ai harness engine. It took me 2 years to put together a PHP content manager (like WP, but way shittier)... ...this harness would take me something like 4 years to put together. I made it in 2 months (of interactive, non contiguous progress) this is V4. Oh its also in Python, a language I have 0% familiarity with. You DEFINITELY get the x10 You ask, where is the proof? The proof is in the recruitment ads, all the geeks are bitching how few jobs there are. #x10 #vibecode
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@maxleibman@beige.party 2026-08-05 01:56
Nvidia doesn’t count, by the way. Selling pickaxes during a gold rush doesn’t prove that prospecting pays.
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@maxleibman@beige.party 2026-08-05 03:40
I eagerly await someone arguing that software developer productivity isn't the only factor impacting the profits of a software company, because to do so will be to argue either or both that development is a very minimal part of the value of a software company, or that AI is in aggregate negative for all other productive activity in such companies.
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@mlevison@hachyderm.io 2026-08-05 01:58
@maxleibman@beige.party +1000. 10x more of the wrong code isn’t called winning.